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Dr Patrick Dixon, YouTube Futurist Keynote Speaker - Recent Futurist YouTube Videos - Keynote Speaker

Just returning from Brussels which was gridlocked yesterday with all EU national leaders. Boris Johnson set to become UK's next Prime Minister at next such gathering - part of long term global shift against politicians with carefully written, measured autocue speeches packed with well-researched facts, in favour of leaders who are more spontaneous, impulsive, emotional, outrageous and "authentic", looser with truth, often people with "colourful" and controversial personal lives.

And Brexit? Truth is that it is impossible to have any effective negotiations in business without each party being (apparently) willing to walk away. The moment one group becomes convinced that the other is unable to do so, the negotiating position of the other side basically collapses. That is the inescapable logic of both the EU and people like B Johnson NOT ruling out NO DEAL / HARD BREXIT as a possible scenario.

Trouble is that in BOTH cases, the reality is that a no deal option is a nightmare. For Brussels it will certainly plunge the EU into customs chaos, because whatever they say, the UK / EU border CANNOT be properly closed. The ROI / NI border will continue to be a soft one because neither ROI nor UK have political interest or the resources to close over 300 miles of countryside border. Such a nightmare for the EU could only be stopped by effectively throwing the ROI out of the free trade area, placing it on a similar trade basis as the UK - with customs controls between ROI and rest of the EU.

But this would be highly controversial and itself trigger a massive political crisis within the EU itself. The unavoidable conclusion is that in the event of a so-called No Deal Exit in October, if that were to happen at all, the UK and EU will both continue to be highly motivated to shift to a trade agreement, which would probably be implemented step by step, sector by sector, week by week, with all kinds of uncertainties in the meantime.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCcffoqcWsw


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