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Health, Coronavirus Speaker Future Pharma Keynotes
I have warned repeatedly over the last 22 years in several books, at large numbers of corporate events, and in many global media broadcasts about new global threats from new mutant viruses, which we see emerging somewhere in the world once every 12 months on average.
Most of these virus types do not spread far, often because so lethal that they kill faster than spread takes place. But that has meant governments have been complacent, neglecting to fund much-needed research into antiviral therapies. As a result we have nothing to offer at present to those who are sick or dying from Coronavirus COVID-19 except supportive measures.
As I often say to corporations: the world can change faster than you can hold a board meeting (and I don't just mean threats from viral pandemics). The days of depending on only one Strategy are over. Every company needs Plan B, C, D and E as well, and to be AGILE in leadership, able to respond very rapidly to major events in our hyper-connected world.
My 1998 warning:( Futurewise, published by Harper Collins)
"One consequence of the increasing population is a growing risk of global epidemics. We are already seeing rapidly changing viruses emerging in different parts of the world. Every time a new persons is infected there is a small risk of a significant mutation. As the world population increases, so the risk of mutation increases. High mobility also encourages spread. We have no medical protection against viral plague."
My 2015 warning: (The Future of Almost Everything, published by Profile Books)
Humankind is very vulnerable to viral attack because we have very few, and relatively feeble, antiviral therapies. There is not a single antiviral today that is as effective as penicillin when first discovered. Antiviral research is 50 years behind antibiotics.
Spanish flu in 1918‒19 spread across the world in months, on foot, horses, donkeys, trains and ships, killing over 30 million people, out of a world population of 2 billion. If a similar highly infectious and lethal pandemic begins tomorrow, it is likely to spread on international flights in days and weeks, not months, with no time for vaccine development or global distribution, and could kill 100 million people within a year.
That is why the World Health Organisation keeps warning governments about these threats.
Read more: I warned of pandemics like Coronavirus COVID-19 in 1998 and 2015 (books), and in hundreds of keynotes to multinationals, health agencies, NGOs, governments. I always say: "The world can change faster than you can call a board meeting - need for Agility".