How to survive and thrive in a chaotic world - common sense guide to what's happening and what it means for corporate strategy. Megtrends will continue to drive the future - in the midst of multiple "shocks". Keynote Speaker on Strategy and Global Trends

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Leadership, Strategy, Business Ethics - Keynotes

I've been predicting trends for global companies over the last 30 years - here's why they keep inviting me back.

It's easy to be swept off balance by one media headline after another, and miss what's really important for the future.

Yes the world can feel increasingly chaotic and uncertain, but beyond the media frenzy the truth is that for most corporations, the fundamentals that have driven their growth and success over the last 20-30 years will continue to do so.

Take electric vehicles - goodness me, Futurists like myself predicted over 20 years ago that after a slow start, they would become increasingly important, and eventually dominate. 

Indeed, most debates in board rooms today are not so much about what is going to happen, but is about TIMING.

Timing is what really matters

By when will most new e-vehicles in Paris be e-powered? By when will most short journeys in cars be driven by AI? By when will the Russian-Ukraine fighting cease - even if into a kind of frozen conflict? By when will China's GDP become the largest in the world? By when will we have effective antiviral treatment against things like COVID, flu or common colds?

Yes of course we should make the most of new tech like AI - indeed my latest book How AI Will Change Your Life has been a best-seller in airport bookshops globally for a year now.  

But at the same time we need a big dose of common sense. A reality check.

For example the US National Bureau of Economic Research published a survey in April 2026 of 6000 CEOs, which found around 90% said AI had made no impact on employment or productivity over the last 3 years.  

If you have read my AI book you would not be very surprised by that.

I have warned repeatedly that corporations are going to waste billions of dollars chasing false AI promises - while at the same time missing out on huge benefits from AI, using it in specific, highly targeted ways at much lower cost.

Megatrends endure through decades

I've been predicting trends for the largest companies in the world as well as for governments for around 30 years now.  And here's the big thing. Many of the mega-trends I described in Futurewise back in 1998, and in other books like The Future of Almost Everything in 2015 are still driving change today. 

That's why companies keep inviting me back.  I've just returned from New York, speaking to 80 of the most senior leaders of one of the world's largest insurers - and I covered a huge range of issues including:

- Conflicts in various regions currently

- How trade tariffs etc with the US are likely settle and why

- How our world will rebalance with the rise of Asian economic power over the next 20-30 years

- Longer term impact of AI on workplace and our daily lives

- Impact of health care innovation and robotics / AI on life expectancy and well being

But here's the important thing. The reason I was in New York was because of a keynote I gave to the insurance industry around 20 years ago, and because the person who invited me, whose meeting it was, heard me back then, read my books and decided that TODAY, most of what I predicted back then had indeed happened. 

So then - let's look ahead, beyond the current frenzy....

Some say pointless to try to anticipate the future

Some say this is a fools job - no one can see the future. Right and wrong. 

Wrong because if that was really the case, no board could ever sign off on a 3-5 year strategy let alone longer term investments. 

Right because there will always be sudden and disruptive events that cannot be forecast. But the point is that events come and go, but megatrends remain. We saw that in the global economic crisis over 15 years ago, and more recently after COVID.

If you want some evidence of this - take a look around this website, starting with the drop down menu YOUR FUTURE and browse around.  

I don't remove old posts.  Decide for yourself.

Example from Mexico economy

Here is another example - based on megatrends.  I was in Mexico City on the very day that President Trump announced his massive array of new trade tarries, speaking on a platform just four hours before his big press conference.  

People were very anxious as you can imagine, as Mexico was clearly going to be a major target. 

But here's the truth.  As I said then, and say again today, the fundamental trends driving the Mexican economy are even greater in power than any Presidential decree in the United States.

Consider wage differences:

$8 an hour in Mexico

$23 an hour in America - before you even add on all the other costs of employment

Even if America were to impose a permanent 20% tariff on all imports you can see the obvious fact which is that the wage difference would still be effectively $10 an hour against $23++ per hour.

In other words, many products will still be far cheaper to make in Mexico, even after paying import taxes and transportation across the border.

And the truth is the the Mexican stock market did very well in the year after those tarrifs were announced.

Why market forces are even stronger than the President of any nation

I also pointed out that the scarier the tarrifs were to the global markets, the more the dollar would be likely to fall, and costs of borrowing for the US government likely to rise.

The US government debt is now so vast that if you divide that total amount owed by the number of adults in America, every adult is shouldering $125,000 of debt, on which interest has to be paid, out of the taxes that adult pays.

And sure enough, the dollar fell enough to frighten not only investors but also those who buy US government debt.

If you lend money to a country, and the currency falls 10%, and you are only getting 5% interest on the loan, what it means is that every year, your entire investment falls in value by 5%.

No surprise then that the markets started to worry about buying more US debt unless at a higher rate of interest - which the US government can't afford to pay.

And so the tariffs were cut back - all that of course before the US Courts decided they were illegal, but that's another story.

What I am saying here is that despite world frenzy in media headlines, the truth is that world continues to turn, day after day.

Global market forces are even greater than the power of any US President.

Common sense tends to prevail

Many of my clients have to take a much longer term view than the next election in a country because of the nature of their business.

I have worked with most of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world, and they are all focussed on health care and public policy beyond 2050.

That is because it takes 15 years to get a new drug from concept to market, and patent life runs out 10 years after that, possibly longer if they are lucky with patent enhancements or extensions.

Airbus is designing new planes today that may not be flying for 5-10 years, but once in the air, are likely to go on from one airport to another until beyond 2080.

After all the Jumbo Jet was first flying in 1969, with first commercial flights in 1972 yet is still flying today, 54 years on.

Infrastructure companies building dams or power stations or smart grids also take a 30+ year view.

Longer term planning also connects with higher purpose

You would probably be surprised at the long timescale that many boards use in planning - while still being rightly focussed on the next quarter, managing costs day to day, winning the next big contract.

You find this most in family-owned large corporations - where they often think in terms of generations - past, present and future - which is why I enjoy working with such companies so much.

They often talk of dynastic values, history, founding principles, and a longer term aspiration to make a difference in the world.

But you will increasingly hear similar language in publicly listed companies - with ever-greater attention to purpose and to making a sustainable difference, helping to build a better world.

You might dismiss this as superficial hogwash, but that is usually far from the truth in my own experience.

It's driven by the passion and purpose of individuals themselves - whether junior team members or senior leadership.

And all that is about longer term vision - indeed the entire message of sustainability and environmental awareness is rooted on that.

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