How AI Will Change Your Life - A Futurist's Guide to a Super-Smart World - Patrick Dixon signs books and talks about key messages - the future of AI, how AI will change us all, how to respond now to AI in business, personal life and government

Future of Sales and Marketing in 2030: physical audience of 800 + 300 virtual at hybrid event. Digital marketing / AI, location marketing. How to create MAGIC in new marketing campaigns. Future of Marketing Keynote Speaker

TRUST is the most important thing you sell. Even more TRUE for every business because of AI. How to BUILD TRUST, win market share, retain contracts, gain customers. Future logistics and supply chain management. Futurist Keynote Speaker

Future of Artificial intelligence - discussion on AI opportunities and Artificial Intelligence threats. From AI predictions to Artificial Intelligence control of our world. What is the risk of AI destroying our world? Truth about Artificial Intelligence

How to make virtual keynotes more real and engaging - how I appeared as an "avatar" on stage when I broke my ankle and could not fly to give opening keynote on innovation in aviation for. ZAL event in Hamburg

"I'm doing a new book" - 60 seconds to make you smile. Most people care about making a difference, achieving great things, in a great team but are not interested in growth targets. Over 270,000 views of full leadership keynote for over 4000 executives

Futurist Keynote Speakers - how Futurist Keynotes transform events, change thinking, enlarge vision, sharpen strategic thinking, identify opportunities and risks. Patrick Dixon is one of the world's best known Futurist Keynote Speaker

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Colonies on Mars, space travel and how digital / Artificial Intelligence / AI will help us live decades longer - comment before keynote for 1400 at Avnet Silica event

Future of Travel and Tourism post COVID. Boom for live experiences beyond AI. What hunger for "experience" means for future aviation, airlines, hotels, restaurants, concerts halls, trends in leisure events, theme parks. Travel Industry Keynote Speaker

Quiet Quitters: 50% US workforce wish they were working elsewhere. How engage Quiet Quitters and transform to highly engaged team members. Why AI / Artificial Intelligence is not answer. How to tackle the Great Resignation. Human Resources Keynote Speaker

The Great Resignation. 50% of US workers are Quiet Quitters. They have left in their hearts, don't believe any longer in your strategy. 40% want to leave in 12 months. Connect with PURPOSE to win Quiet Quitters. Human Resources Keynote Speaker

Future of Human Resources. Virtual working, motivating hybrid teams, management, future of motivation and career development. How to develop high performance teams. HR Keynote Speaker

Speed of change often slower than people expect! I have successfully forecast major trends for global companies for over 25 years. Focus on factors driving long term changes, with agile strategies for inevitable disruptive events. Futurist Keynote Speaker

Agile leadership for Better Risk Management. Inflation spike in 2022-3 - what next? Expect more disruptive events, while megatrends will continue relentlessly to shape longer term future globally in relatively predictable ways. Futurist Keynote Speaker

Crazy customers! Changing customer expectations. Why many decisions are irrational. Amusing stories. Lessons for Leadership, Management and Marketing - Futurist Keynote Speaker VIDEO

Chances of 2 people in 70 having same birthday? Managing Risk in Banking and Financial Services. Why the greatest risks are combinations of very unlikely events, which happen far more often than you expect. Keynote speaker on risk management

Compliance is Dead. How to build trust. Reputation of banks and financial services. Compliance Risks. Why 100% compliance with regulations, ESG requirements etc is often not enough to prevent reputational damage

Life's too short to do things you don't believe in! Why passionate belief in the true value of what you are selling or doing is the number one key to success. Secret of all leadership and marketing - keynote for 1100 people in Vilnius October 2021

Future Manufacturing 5.0. Lessons from personal life for all manufacturers - why most manufacturing lags 10-15 years behind client expectations in their day to day life. Manufacturing 4.0 --> Manufacturing 5.0. Future of Manufacturing Keynote

80% of sales are won or lost in 3 seconds, How to grow your business by giving attention to small things that really matter. Future of Marketing, Futuris Keynote Speaker - Pardavimu formule in Vilnius

The truth about Northern Ireland’s borders after Brexit – passports and customs - and how demographic shifts will hugely alter political balance. Comment after keynote.

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future Trends, Economy, Markets, Keynote Speaker

29th September 2017

A lot of nonsense is talked about Brexit.  Here is the truth.

Sorting out all Brexit issues affecting the borders of Northern Ireland could take many years to fully resolve.  At the same time, the EU has made it clear that until a practical solution is agreed, even if such a solution is fine-tuned in future, discussions on a trade deal post-Brexit, will be on permanent hold.

There is a small chance that the entire Brexit process will be halted by a further vote in the UK, which could form part of an election manifesto commitment at the next election.  However this is becoming less likely at the moment, because opinion polls across the UK as a whole are more in favour of Brexit than when the original vote to leave took place.  (At the same time, paradoxically, opinion polls in other EU nations are becoming more positive about being part of the EU.)

For the purposes of this article, let us assume therefore that Brexit happens.

The EU has made absolutely 100% clear that they will not under any circumstances tolerate a breach anywhere in the EU wall controlling goods, services and movements of people across the border into the EU.  That is, unless every detail of that breach is carefully agreed as part of a complex trade agreement.  The reason is that such a breach would be used by every company wanting to bypass normal trade tarifs.  It would amount to a kind of legal smuggling.  Such a breach could also be used by migrants.

The UK government has also taken a similar position.  While the UK government would be delighted to have a back door after Brexit, through which goods and services can freely move in and out of the EU without any trade barriers, they would be against creating any port or airport into UK territory where migrants could flood into the UK without any controls.

The strong EU preference is for a simple, ordinary, border in the Irish sea.  In other words, free movement of goods and services and people between the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and Northern Ireland (NI).  The only alternative that is likely to be manageable from customs and migration point of view would be a hard EU / UK border applied between ROI and NI.  The UK government has proposed various complicated ways in which a border could be managed in a less cut and dried way between the ROI and NI, but all these are likely to be rejected by the EU. 

But who has the moral right to determine which of the two simple options should apply?  The European Commission has already stated that the logical body to decide where that border should be is a Parliament representing the people of NI, in conjunction with the Parliament of ROI. The only problem is that at the time of writing, there is no Parliament operating in Northern Ireland, for unrelated reasons.  So such decisions would slide by default to Westminster.

It could be argued that Westminster has no moral right to determine such a vitally important matter on behalf of the people of NI.  And in the absence of a functioning NI Parliament the logical conclusion would then be that such a matter should be subject to a referendum in NI.

Choice: Assuming that the UK leaves the EU, where do you wish the customs and passport border between Northern Ireland and the UK to be?  In the Irish Sea or between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland?

Because of the vast number of people movements across the border between ROA and NI every day, the fact that many farms have land running across the border and so on, such a vote might well settle on a border in the Irish Sea.  Indeed this is likely to be the only politically sustainable solution in the longer term, for another very important reason.

A further significant factor in the changing landscape of NI is that demographics are changing, and with it, the likely future balance of votes on these and many other issues.  The birth rate of communities identifying culturally as Catholic, is far greater than the birth rate of communities identifying culturally as Protestant.  So in general terms, the size of the electorate likely to vote for traditionally Catholic policies will eventually exceed the rest of the population.  The old situation of a Catholic minority is going to become a Protestant minority.  This is a radical transformation with a tipping point likely to be in less than a decade.

So in the longer term, it is even more likely that the majority of the population of NI would vote for no border with ROI.

However, the current reality is that the Conservative government in the UK is perpetually on the brink of being unable to govern because it lacks a majority, and the party keeping it in power is the Democratic Unionist Party, which is likely to resist an Irish sea border, since it’s core value is union with the UK.

So the Brexit process will continue for a while more at least, in a messy and semi-chaotic way.

Need a world-class keynote speaker for your event?  Contact us now.

Related news items:
Newer news items:
Older news items:

Thanks for promoting with Facebook LIKE or Tweet. Really interested to read your views. Post below.

Join the Debate! What are your own views?



Our cookie policy

We use cookies for statistical purposes. To comply with the e-Privacy Directive we need to ask your consent to place these cookies on your computer.

Your use of this site indicates acceptance of these terms. I accept I Decline