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Here is a fact beyond dispute:  China is set to become the world’s largest economy.  The only debates are by what date and by what measure?  

Post written in 2012 - turned out to be highly accurate:  

According to the IMF, Asian economies will represent at least 40% of global economic output by 2015, when adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP - which is just a way of saying that a McDonald’s hamburger should be similar cost everywhere and if it is not, we need to make an allowance in exchange rates to calculate the true relative value of a nation’s economy).

Many economists expect that on PPP calculations, China will overtake the United States long before 2020, probably by 2015-17. All global economists agree it is only a matter of time, by whatever measure. Leaders in developed nations should be ready for a major psychological, economic, cultural and political shift, which will impact the rest of this century.

(This article was written in 2012 and made many very accurate forecasts on the Future of China. For latest article on China see How China will dominate the world, and why most business leaders are blind to China's impact. Future of China, economy, trade, manufacturing, consumers, retail, e-commerce, military and security.)

* "How AI Will Change Your Life - A Futurist's Guide to a Super-Smart World" - Patrick Dixon's latest book on AI is published in September 2024 by Profile Books.  It contains 38 chapters on the impact of AI across different industries, government and our wider world.

Need a world-class keynote speaker on trends in China? Phone Patrick Dixon now or email.

Reality gap in perception of China’s future

I lecture to tens of thousands of people, in up to 25 nations a year.  I also correspond with over 42,000 followers on Twitter, 2,000 on Linkedin, and on YouTube or my own Website bulletin boards with representatives of another million or two a year.  Here is what I observe:

Most people I talk to in developed nations are really struggling to understand the deeper implications of the rise of China, to really comprehend what it all means, the scale of this gigantic convulsion on the global stage.

Take the United States:  both Presidential candidates fought electoral battles with similar messages about American being the greatest nation on earth, and the need to keep America so.  Their messages were somewhat out of step with the uncomfortable reality that China is about to become, on simple economic terms, the most powerful economic force on the planet.

Lessons from British loss of Empire

Let us pause for a moment.  Winston Churchill once said that to understand the future we need to look to the past.

In the 19th century, the British Empire was the greatest single economic force, ruled from London.  The Empire was a vast free trade area, that anticipated globalization today.  The collapse of that Empire was a traumatic psychological blow for the British people, following the end of the Second World War. At the same time, our world faced the rise of a new Soviet force stretching across half of Germany and all Eastern and Central Europe, to the borders with Turkey, Canada and China.

As a UK citizen I can say that it took half a century for British self-esteem to recover from deep unease about a colonial past.  The UK has had to adjust to a lesser future, as a fringe component in a wider European Community of 26 other nations, with loss of autonomy on a huge range of day to day issues.

America as global defender of freedom and democracy

Since the end of the Second World War until the collapse of Communism, the United States saw itself as the natural global defender of freedom, justice, democracy and market forces, pitted against Russian and Chinese Communist superpowers in a bitterly fought Cold War.

When the Iron Curtain collapsed, it became clear how far Russia had fallen, from a global Superpower with thousands of nuclear warheads, to a nation stricken by psychological malaise, low life-expectancy, corrupt institutions, bankrupt state-owned enterprises and a badly broken economy.  China in 1990 also seemed to have severe problems of its own, which left the United States as the world’s sole Superpower, able to play a policing role on a global scale.

Global influence is changing rapidly

Russia continues to limp along to recovery but still aspires to a regional power-base.

But China is being reborn as a dynamic and rapidly growing economy with a greater vision for regional influence, staking controversial territorial claims and spending billions more each year on army, navy and airforce.

So now there are two Superpowers, and if that was not disturbing enough to many in America and Europe, the larger of the two is about to be China.

China’s natural place in the world restored

To those in China, the nation is simply regaining its natural balance in the world after two centuries of decline.  This a nation that has had a strong national identity for 3000 years, compared to a country that was created less than 300 years ago.

The very name for China in Mandarin is the Chinese symbol for the whole world, with a line through the middle, literally "Middle Earth".

China has always had one of the largest populations of any nation, and represents around 1 in 6 of all humans alive today.  Combined with India, these two embrace a third of all the earth’s inhabitants.  These two nations believe that as part of the natural order, that between them they should comprise therefore a third of the economic power of the whole world.

American patriotism – strong glue in a young nation

And the United States?  America is a very young nation:  a nation of many peoples, built into perhaps the world's most vibrant, dynamic and highly entrepreneurial community, on a foundation of pioneers, settlers and brave dissidents who struck out for freedom in a distant land.

America is bound by the strong glue of national pride.  In few other nations do you see so many national flags or symbols – on buildings, outside homes, tied to cars.  Such enthusiastic nationalism seems odd to nations to many people in Europe, who are on the whole more at ease with the cultural ambiguities in their national life, and tend to be more reticent about waving their national flags

It can be hard for American leaders to talk about the relative decline of America economically, without sounding unpatriotic.  Rhetoric about a Strong America, is also often tied up with rhetoric about a Strong Dollar – as we see in discussions on bulletin boards and Twitter.

This is despite the fact that a primary reason why China is able to export so much and so cheaply, is precisely because the Dollar is so strong against Asian currencies, buys so many things, and makes similar US goods more expensive to export.

Calls for protection against "economic damage" from China

Many Americans passionately believe that the answer is to defy market forces and protect US jobs by imposing big import taxes on a wide range of goods.  But as history shows, you can only prop up inefficient enterprises for so long, before the day of reckoning comes.

And the day of reckoning could come even faster if America suffers retaliation in a similar kind of blockade against most important US exports.

The truth is that even if America was to totally ban all imports of all goods from China, the end result will still be the same in terms of China's ultimate global position, because America is less and less important to China’s economic growth with every passing year.

A rapidly increasing proportion of exports from emerging markets, are imports into other emerging markets, many of them bought by the emerging middle classes who are increasing by 50-80 million people every year.

In any case, in a complex manufacturing world, how do you prevent components from one nation being built into products in another?  Vietnam is now a major supplier of components for Chinese factories.  But the trend could easily switch so that Chinese components are built into everyone else’s products to get around US import bans.

The stronger the calls for protection against China’s low cost goods, the more obvious it is that there is a failure to grasp the fundamental realities of the situation.  Government leaders in the US, United States or Australia can no more prevent the rise of China by imposing trade barriers, than they can prevent the turning of the earth every 24 hours.

It all adds up to a painful and inevitable adjustment.

A new moral force emerging across Asia

This will be a new world with a new moral force on a wide range of issues.  If India and China combine in their global campaigning for a better future, they will be able to claim to be the legitimate voice of a third of humanity.

Together, they will represent an increasingly dominant economic force, even more so, if welded into such an Alliance were all the members of the ASEAN community, who themselves represent a population of 600 million more.

For the American people in particular, I believe these changes will be so profound, that as with the British after 1945, it could take up to 50 years for America to find it’s authentic voice again, not as the greatest nation on earth, but as the second, or maybe even after India by then, the third greatest nation on earth, measured on simple PPP terms.

Need a world-class keynote speaker on trends in China? Phone Patrick Dixon now or email.

* What do YOU think about the rise of China and other emerging nations?  What do you think the impact will be on the future balance of our world? Do comment below. I reply to each one.

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Thanks for promoting with Facebook LIKE or Tweet. Really interested to read your views. Post below.

Haviette Libertin
July 28, 2017 - 05:11

I believe that the United States should continue to produce jobs within its borders, export as much as it can to other countries, and remain energy independent. If we end up becoming isolated economically from other countries, the American people would be able to protect themselves from economic collapse, by remaining an entrepreneurial, capitalist society. The only thing that would bring about our demise, would be the centralized banking system, and the national debt. The socialist- leaning political interests are racing neck-and-neck with them to tear down our country. China's economic power is the least of our worries.

Ernie Einre
November 04, 2015 - 04:14

Racial tension in Malaysia and Singapore is not supposed to be the problem of the Malays because that is their own country, their own land, no doubt about that. This is the same problem in the whole of the ASEAN. It is not "Asia co‐prosperity", It is not "Asia for Asians" but the correct one is Malaysia for the Malaysians (Malay), Thailand for the Thailanders (Malay), Philippines for the Filipinos (Malay), Singapore for Singaporeans (Malay), Indonesia for the Indonesians (Malay) and so on. So where should the Chinese, Koreans, Japanese, Indians (India) be right now? The Chinese should be in China, the Japanese should be in Japan, the Koreans should be in Korea and the Indians should be in India. Otherwise, this is again another "land and economic colonialism/imperialism". What else will the Chinese, Indians (India) want since their country are very big and their lands are productive. In fact, their countries are 30X (China) and 10X (India) bigger than most ASEAN countries and their lands are fertile lands unlike Africa and other places which are desert and some are wastelands that cannot produce crops/foods for it’s people.

The Chinese, Koreans, Japanese, Indians (India) were really cruel, notoriously selfish and greedy since they were imperialist/colonizers even before the advent of European colonization. Remember Genghis Khan and his hordes (considered the most cruel and barbaric colonizer) and who can forget the Japanese and Koreans (they were Chinese also) during World War 2. The Indians (India) were all over the history books for their notorious wars and colonizations in Asia. Before, being many or populous is the main weapon of war. They were powerful before because they were all very populous and they want to continuously increase their population so that they can maintain their power to make wars and atrocities and this is their principle until now. To support this war principle and also their growing population (they used these in making wars and to intimidate smaller countries), they resort to economic colonization by living in other countries (like ASEAN) spy on them and control them especially their economy (racial tension) and by land and sea colonization of small countries by using flimsy excuses and blatant lies (by showing their might through their military arsenal and vast population). This is very apparent now not only with the islands, oceans and seas being stolen (even building airstrips on islands they made) by China currently (West Philippine Sea, etc.) but since the Chinese, Indians (India), etc. were already living/occupying almost all parts of Asia and the world. They control the economy of countries they currently dominate (small countries only but not the superpowers like USA, Europe, Russia, etc.) and intimidate them by force also (bullying) and thus making them the ruler and the smaller nations their slaves (racial tension). Japan wants a land empire during World War 2 but instead of land empire, they now have an economic empire. China was claiming Diaoyu islands from Japan and China was claiming the Spratly’s Islands, etc. also. What are the Chinese and Japanese basis for their claims since both of them are doing the same thing; they both claim (thievery) what is not theirs. Greediness are their main weapon. Selfishness are their defense. China (Spratly Islands) and Japan (Diaoyu islands) are both claiming what is not theirs. Why are the Chinese pointing their finger to Japan and not to China. They both have to point their fingers to themselves.

The Chinese expansionism now was emboldened by their Chinese counterparts/collaborators in other countries because of their economic control of other countries (like Asean, USA, Russia, Europe, Australia, etc.) and by their being numerous. Remember that the true homeland of the Chinese is in North East Asia (Tibet, Mongolia, eastern part of Russia, etc.) and they push southward and westward (especially during Genghis Khan’s conquest of Europe) where they lived and settle down. So these Chinese in other countries (especially perhaps Genghis Khan hordes’ remnants and their regional relatives in Russia‐the Chinese also sourced their technology from them probably not with Caucasian Russians) served as eyes and ears of the Chinese in China and will be mobilized if the need arises (this is also the Japanese strategy during World War 2). Today, the Chinese were already eyeing the Middle East as another prospect for their expansionism and control. As this is being done, MERS had already arrived in the Middle East and also maybe SARS Corona virus, H1N1, Birds Flu, Melamine‐contaminated powdered infant formula, cadmium‐polluted rice, tainted dog food and anti‐freeze contaminated vinegar, other Chinese products with lead and other toxins (Toothpaste containing diethylene glycol, Toys with choking hazards like Mag Stix, Lead‐covered toy trains by RC2 Corp., catfish, eel, shrimp and tilapia imported from China contained salmonella, veterinary drugs, and nitrofuran, a cancer‐causing chemical, Shoddy tire treads, etc.), their bribery and corruption ridden way of life especially in business (smuggling, drugs, fake products, white slavery, etc.). Can the Chinese outdo The Indians (India) in the Middle East and Africa since both of them are collaborators and MENA region is India’s turf (South East Asia is the Chinese turf).

The Chinese, Indian (India), Japanese, Koreans and all collaborators/traitors should be sent back to their own countries for their intention is not one of goodwill but to dominate and enslaved people. They had already taken the hand but they also want to take the whole arm because they are very greedy and selfish. They are occupying lands that is not theirs, even the land they considered as their native land (China, India, Taiwan, etc.).

The Chinese, Indians (India), etc. were trickster. They bully and conquer small nations especially before the Europeans arrived in Asia. When the Europeans began bombing their shores, they folded up easily and surrender almost without a fight because they don’t fight squarely and fairly. They do not fight with stronger/bigger opponents but they bully and fight only with smaller/weaker countries. Remember also that Genghis Khan fights all the way to Europe when Genghis Khan and his hordes were still very strong (in terms of quantity‐hordes) and Europe was unprepared and divided (Divide and Rule by Genghis Khan). This is just the way they are before and until now. Just take a look at China, even in sports, they bully their opponents especially if they play in their home country (China) and they usually do group attacks and ganged up (hordes style) against a single opponent (they don’t fight one on one ‐ no fair and square fights for them). They were a good practitioner of the “divide and rule” system and rhetorics (“Asia for Asians”, “Asia co‐prosperity”). If they are in Asia, they will say to Asians “Oh you are our brother but when they are in Europe or USA they will claim that they are whites (pale colored skin‐yellow race). Also, if they were the stronger one, they will bully and make wars but if they were the weaker one, they will say to the other small and weak countries “Please pity us and help us for they were very strong and bully” [Are the Chinese, Indians (India), etc. talking about themselves ‐ afraid of their own reflection? They are bullies and why are they afraid?]. Out of pity, they will be given the chance to live and they will do their unethical way of living (illegal immigrant, etc.) and bad business practices (bribery, corruption, intimidation, murders, smuggling, drugs, etc.). This is their trick (plus they will intimidate their smaller host countries for they were a big country in terms of area and population) so that they can lived unhindered in their unethical way of life. Why would you help such people (Chinese, Indians (India), etc.) who were the most cruel and instigator/initiator of cruelty and until now they are like that. If somebody help them, it is as if they feed the snake that will ultimately bite and kill them. Remember that they are very greedy and selfish. A Christian Chinese is not a Christian but only a Chinese; A Communists Chinese is not a communists but only a Chinese, A Muslim Chinese is not a Muslim but only a Chinese [this also applies to Koreans, Japanese and Indians (India)].

It is not possible, it is not just and fair and it is wrong that the Chinese, Koreans, Japanese, Indians (India) to control and own and to be living in the Asean countries also (How can they own two countries?) and they continue to prosper and their populations to grow and the Malays became poorer. The fact is that the Chinese, Koreans, Japanese and Indians are already in control of their respective countries and were the ones doing business there already and no problem about that because it is their own countries. The problem is that, the Chinese, Koreans, Japanese and Indians were also the ones doing business and in control of Asean countries and living there prosperously and arrogantly and not the Malays. If the Malays cannot do business and cannot have complete control of their own country, will the Chinese, Koreans, Japanese and Indians allow these same Asean Malays to do business and control China, Korea, Japan and India the way they are doing it now? This is the same problem that Fiji had before regarding the Indians (India) domination of Fiji (Indians control the politics, business and almost everything) and the native Fijians were living in their own country as poor people and it seems that they are the foreigners not the Indians (India). The Illegal Indian (India) immigrants were expelled and they lost everything since they were not allowed to work and do business in Fiji. The Indians (India) even go to the extent of filing a case in the International Court but they lost. It appears that their (Chinese, Indians, etc.) main goal is that they will ultimately be the only one to survive.

Now even the sea and ocean belonging to other countries were being colonized by the Chinese. These land, sea and economic colonialism had to be stopped. Greediness is the underlying principle being used by these people but with these principle, they expected also that only one of them and only one man was expected to survive since they only love their own self and no other (greediness/selfishness). Will the sole survivor be a Chinese man, a Japanese man, a Korean man or an Indian (India) man? Let them be with their principle, Let them live alone by and among themselves, let them lived with this principle where their own effect will be for their own enjoyment or downfall. So they have to go back to China, Japan, Korea and India and be the proud people with these principle.

This racial problem was not the situation and was not in existence before the European colonization of Asian countries. This problem was brought about by the use of the “divide and rule” principle by the European colonizers to gain adequate grip in their colonies. What is this system? This is best explained by the end result wherein foreigners [i.e. Chinese, Indians (India)] or local Malays but from other places were the ones dominating the other localities in terms of politics, business, government positions, military/police jobs, etc. but the native Malay people of that place (those who really lived and originated in that place) where just second class citizens and they are the poor ones with limited rights and privileges. By these, a foreigner [Chinese, Indians (India), etc.] and local Malays (but not a native of that place) served as collaborators/traitors (mercenaries) or right hand man of the colonizers. The foreigner collaborators [Chinese, Indians (India), etc.] were much higher in rank thus they also enjoy enormous benefits, rights and privileges compared to their Malay counterparts collaborators. They (collaborators, traitors) will be the ones assigned to rule and watch a place assigned to them and they will be reporting directly to the colonizers and with the full support of the colonizers. Thus these collaborators/mercenaries enjoy immense powers in the assigned areas they ruled thus, they control the politics, businesses, owns big tracts of land and can commit a lot of atrocities with impunity. They do not care since they are not from that place and all they want is the power and riches that they can get. So the benefit goes to them (collaborators/traitors), a non‐native of that place but no benefits, rights and privileges to local residents (racial tension problem ‐ Who wants to deal and live with collaborators/traitors?). It is the practice until now and it is observed even today that foreigners (Chinese, Indians, etc.) and a few locals (but not a native of that place or district) were the ones always enjoying powers since they own the businesses and were in the political and government positions and even in the higher ranks in the military and police units. This was the “divide and rule” structure established then and was still existing until now to protect the interests and benefits of the collaborators/traitors.

The European colonizers were gone and had given the colonies their independence but the “divide and rule” structure was not dismantled and is still working. Mr. Habibie, the former President of Indonesia, is right in his analysis about the Chinese menace in Indonesia (and elsewhere also). The collaborators (foreigners and locals) became very rich and powerful and well educated until now. The Collaborators/traitors continue to prosper and their populations grow unhindered (about half of the world population) and the Malays became poorer.

This divide and rule structure should be dismantled since this is a tool of oppression and this is still being use to assure the collaborators and traitors of their benefits. The collaborators and traitors should be sent out of the country (just like the Fiji case). Remember that during the Japanese colonization (World War 2), the Japanese and their collaborators/traitors became very rich but these riches and all benefits including immigration rights granted and obtained by the Japanese and their collaborators were invalid and illegal for these were criminal acts and were done during their colonization war (criminal act) and all their riches therefore were ill-gotten wealth. So these illegal immigrants were sent out of the country and their (Japanese and collaborators/traitors) ill‐gotten wealth confiscated and war criminals were punished. This Japanese WW2 colonization case is the same with the Chinese, Indians (India), etc. case in Malaysia, Singapore and other ASEAN countries now since this also happened again in another colonization case : the European colonization (which happened much earlier and in a longer period of time). Therefore the acts during this time were invalid and illegal (criminal act). Thus, the Chinese, Indians (India), etc. were illegal immigrants and should be deported and their wealth ill‐gotten and should be confiscated and they were collaborators/traitors and must be jailed/punished. Even in our laws today, illegal immigrants and tourists are not allowed to work and to do business especially if they are unethical in the conduct of their business [corruption, bribery, intimidation, etc.‐ Is this the Chinese, Indian (India), etc. system? You can say that again…], so they can be deported and their wealth confiscated. It is not right to deal with them and buy their goods since those were the products of ill‐gotten wealth (also please see antifencing law). But care must be taken because there are also a lot of locals today that are not collaborators and traitors and these local people are just and honest in their businesses and in their political, government and military/police works.

Malaysia’s cultural development in giving more rights and benefits to native Malays is going in the right direction in dismantling this divide and rule structure. They (also the whole of ASEAN) must go back and restore the previous groupings/divisions and systems they have before the Western Colonization of Asia. Always remember that Malays had lived adequately, happily peacefully and independently before and can do so today. Technology belongs to the West and not with these Asian collaborators (Chinese, Koreans, Japanese and Indians) and who needs them especially with their unwanted effects which the Malays had been suffering until now.

It is about time that the great masses of poor Malay people be given the opportunity to recover their lost ground economically. They can do this by harnessing their own power (a self‐help approach) and with not much need for foreign capital investment (Western technology, Yes it is important). One such system is by establishing businesses and jobs through pooling of capital/corporation: Basing on the business opportunities possible in a certain district, region or locality and what is needed and what will be good for national development, each working age person in a certain locality will contribute a small amount (as investor) of money (i.e. US$2.00 a month) and this will be used as capital in establishing their own corporations in their own districts or locality. Let us call these corporations “Native Malay Corporations”. The principle should be and it is a must that ONLY NATIVE MALAYS CAN JOIN these corporations and also, the products or services by THESE CORPORATIONS SHOULD BE PATRONIZE BY THE MALAYS themselves to be assured of the Market also, these "Native Malay Corporations" would buy and import products from the West or other technologically advanced countries and from other "Native Malay Corporations" and other similar corporations in other countries (other countries should adopt the "Native Malay Corporation' principle and system also). They can contribute/invest monthly (US$2.00/person) and so, each month there will be one big native Malay corporation that will be established in every district, provinces or regions (depending on the national planning). If they will do this scheme, the profit of the corporation/business will be theirs since they own it and employment will be theirs also (more jobs). If there will be importations and foreign investments, the employment and profit will not go to the host country but to the investor and exporter of goods. With the big capitalization that can be collected (imagine the US$2.00/person monthly collection and as needed only) and with an assured market (patronizing only and all “Native Malay Corporations” products), these corporations can tie‐up with western corporations with technology for a better, complete and faster business development. Other regions such as Africa, South America, Pacific countries, etc. can also adapt this system for their own economic development. This is a fast way of economic development because all regions/districts can develop simultaneously : at the same time and not one by one. Also, the major assets and components needed are be the natural resources, the people of a country and of course advance technology from the West. It is the hope of this system and is a must that the poorest of the poor will be given the first priority and chance to invest and work in "Native Malay Corporation" for all to have a chance to live a good life that everybody deserves and to establish a strong and solid base and foundations in the Malay society/nation. If these corporations will be successful, it will be easier to help other poor countries like the African countries. As we can see today, this is the age of consolidation, so there is a need for the whole Malay World to consolidate for a better future and so we can form our own bloc, much like the Euro nations, GCC, etc.

It is every people’s right and responsibility to protect and preserved his life, to enjoy the fullness of life and to do everything to achieve this, for this is what is just and fair.

We have to do what is right in the eyes of GOD and not to do what is not right in the eyes of GOD. The only true guide is GOD and not the people.

Mary Krystel
August 27, 2015 - 15:02

Good day. I really need your help to satisfy my curiosity. ://
In what way has the ascent of China to super power status changed the regional and global landscape? Is there a grain of truth in some realist pessimist scholars say that this might result to a non-peaceful transfer of power? In what way(s)? Thank you. ://

Christopher Malloyd
April 22, 2015 - 23:42

I feel as though our American leaders have based their manuvers and policies, both foriegn and domestic, on principalities that have frankly pissed everyone off. Our politions are in dire need of a moral reform before we ever begin to consider and economic change or growth for that matter. We are to cuaght up on the power of the dollar and so called patriotism instead of effective manuevering and decision making. If Eastern coutries, like china and India were to become global leaders there would obviosley be a dramatic change in global morals, policy and tactics. Maybe it's time we hear from some of the stone we've rejercted.

March 19, 2015 - 21:02

They seem to be rising in power..Look at all the stuff we buy at the store..Most of them are made in China..

August 01, 2014 - 21:14

An export-based economy cannot become a genuine superpower. It ultimately depends on foreign countries for its economic base. If it wants to become a superpower that can survive in a conflict with a large nation or alliance then it needs to become a consumer-based economy. And so far, there have been no improvements in that area. China depends on the US and Japan for its exports. Even with its pure hatred of Japan and its fallacious threats of "war" or so-called "defense" against Japan it depends on Japan for its income and since Japan is allied with the US it would devastate their economy if they go to war. They also have a budget that's about 5 times smaller than the US's. And a superpower is a global power-grasp. So PPP is irrelevant as that is only local. Nominally, China's economy is still under 10-11 trillion dollars. China also lacks any allies. North Korea is their only military ally and Russia doesn't trust them. They have no equivalent to NATO and they're still in territorial disputes with over 6-10 countries, including Russia and India. So no, they will not become a superpower. There is no way the Yuan can become a reserve currency and the fact is their military is having a lot of problems in regards to maintaining their generals and supplies. Not only that, but they're suffering from pollution where over 500,000 people die a year. They also have to worry about their western regions where both want independence and are starting to get so fed up they're resorting to violence. They're surrounded by nations that do not agree with them, also.

There are tons of other reasons as to why they cannot become a superpower, but the blatant fact is they won't. Not at least in the next 50 - 70 years.

Reply to Tom
January 10, 2018 - 12:44

your way to caught up in the current time mate. you need to think ahead. when the british empire ended at the end of the world war it gave dpace to america. when the soviets fell it gave unaliable rights for america. but empires only last so long and yours was probably the shortest in history precisely because your burnt out so fast. over expanded without patience of timing over evaluated yourself.. etc china is not focused on say 5 years from now but 30 years from now. while america makes it day by day thats why its clear to see that america wont be the unipoplar power for long. now american prestige has been undervalued thats the last peice of the puzzle to the unwinding of an empire. look at the seuz canal incident with u.k ( im british). theres 7.9 billion people on the planet. 324 million are american. by just listening to your countries own opinion your literally living on an island if you dont take into account the rest of the world and dont change with the times your gonna get left behind. america has been so caught up in itself it lost a step somewhere i feel. or maybe the timeline of an empire is 100 years as seen in the past and america has had its day!
in either case. just because your current values are in the minds of people which is natural given your 100 year status as 'the' empire doesnt mean that feeling will be there for long. in england we already accept the reality because were not holding on to anything and we saw what happened to our 'the biggest' empire the world ever saw. many brits i spoke to say the same. china is gonna be the next super power. so now we (the majority of the world) need to shift accordingly. still its nice that you guys in america feel so strongly about your country. but you need to carm it down now and consolidate what you have or you may find it all unravels faster than you can anticipate. heres food for thought. if north korea and south korea peacefully reunify thats the strongest bases in the east asian pacific no longer required (25-50 thousand troops) to be sent home and whole legion of bases needing to be disbanded losing a heap of power and influence in that block of the world, no doubt next to china.
this will domino ive seen it happen. anyway i hope your people think smart and start consolidating your assests because when thr shift happens and most of what makes american powerful e.g the empires support (as it wanes) then america will be left on its on. sure it will have alliances and a decent economy but thats not the point. the point is it wont have the biggest economy or the strongest most powerul (superpower) country. status means nothing if you cant it up!

Frank Koscielny
July 19, 2014 - 15:56

China rise will be very disappointing to many. First China history is not as much innocent as some think or claim. There was so many wars with high death tolls, oppression of other nations etc, so China is not sincere when their strategists say that China was not involved in any colonial activity, and adding that China is thus more predestinated to be moral leader for wolrd (we know this phrase from something right?). But being a preyer of European powers then Japan is not an argument, when past was innecent. It's like my country - Poland. We were attacked by Nazi's and Communist Russia in few days span in 1939, but we also had bad history according to Ukraine and Latvia population (not mention own Poles serving under feudalism). So nothing is as easy as someone would like to see it. Especially in China, which after Japan occupation, was at War in Korea, Vietnam (attacking it), India (war about border in Tibet), attacked Russia (border dispute), helped Afghanistan Talibs in war against Russia with weaponry provided from Israel. Not mention many military action of support to local dictators on Africa and elsewhere. All of this in Cold War. And this is projected into nowadays, when China is making quasi wars and disputes. After collapse of maoist government, which was making everything including war and worldwide interventions, but feeding it's people, China was so weakened that they give up their political and military claims for 30 years, but now hawks are still rising in Beijing. Thus we see all those actions recently (toward Japan, Taiwan, even India).
Today China is also engaging in neocolonial game, with even more old-colonial-like features. They waste toxics in Africa, monopolize their energy resources, import food and in turn opens their market for China higher-technology products. Even Chinese work labor is being imported to Africa by Chinese owners. And China "non-intervention" policy is quite like new model for pro-colonial elites, since elites gain profits from export to China, just like in 19th/20th century. In that time there were also growth, not mention British, French etc and even Muslim colonists who build many infrastructural and medical projects. But what if new African country goverment would like to nationalize (communist postulate) some Chinese owned industries? What would look like then non-intervention policy? Or anti-globalization postulates will be then named as foreign plot aimed toward China good will and leadership? That's good question.
So China looks quite like 19th century UK, but in 21st century reality. Thus I do not see many ups for China. It's great and will be #1 (in economy, shaping world politically and also sadly in polluting it). China will gave growth (derived mainly from low processed goods from developing world), but also it will try to monopolize some aspects of world economy, politics. And it will be no different than old powers. Maybe except that China is not from west, so this catch works fine on some leaders, thinkers.

I think that Author do not evaluate so much the consequences of China rise on other global powers (USA, EU, India, Russia, Brazil).

There is no way to stop China from rising - true. But in China their more precisely understand their future obstacles than most experts in West. China more aggressive behavior would reshape political blocks heavily.
1. Sino-Russian alliance will broke, when Russia will be pressed by China in east part of country (Russia idea for development is seen in expansion westward, rather than into east open spaces).
2. Also China-India relations could be even worse. China puts hopes on Pakistan to look into weakening India through division or detaching part of it's territory. So what that China say that China-India trade will be most important/biggest in future. It say nothing about political alliance. See todays USA-China economic relations. They also labeled most important (biggest) in the world by both sides. But it give no alliance. Thus India will be consisting second economy in future and could be leader of second political block to pro-Chinese block. In India block can be also Russia (same issues). Not mentions Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines or Indonesia etc.
3. The one of the biggest question is about EU. In what shape Europe will be entered year 2030 or 2060? It will be great question. It can work out problem to that ectent that they will be able to manage their decline in good manner or they will fall into national disputes or tribalism (Scotland, Basks etc). Watching current elections and polls there is return of good know European disease known as chauvinism. It could be hard to maintain current political system here. Still "quasi-neonazi" Europe can work together if they realize that better is get together, thus reshaping EU, but not wasting it. But the biggest obstacle is to prevent Russian attempt to obtain quasi or severe power over Europe. This can be done by means of resources and politically used capital. But EU economical decline is real threat to those plans, while then fate of Russian resources success in world will be in China hands. China is clever and they prefer taking resources from other countries, not like Europeans, who are allowing Russia to have big leverage on them.
4. USA. I agree with You that sustaining strong dollar is only making better position for China. I also do not believe that total economical war is good, nor can make give USA better position. But problem is much deeper. It's problem of finance sector and strong dollar, which supports it. That's way some circles, elites tries to make believe that strong dollar is good for average American, playing on patriotic strings. But in fact its opposite. Current strong position of dollar as a world #1 currency, which lubricate world's trade (make other currencies easier to exchange, trade is easier) makes the dollar valued more than it should be. Of course such position is great for financial sector, but not for others. Dollar as wolrd currency makes easier for capital assets flew the country to other areas (Asia, Europe). This also exports work abroad. Not too mention that strong dollar kills Made in USA products, components. It's connected and effect is that financial elites can extract $ from those situated below them. Of course outright job export will end in actions to prevent it, but here comes loans, where someone take cash from bank, then must return much more (to cover inflation, operational costs, merge). It OK when loan is for investment which return, but not when You take loan for consumption instead of saving money before, or better when loan goes to someone who will never make cash to return it (current crisis). But I also see it how hypocritical is Chinese (and others) propaganda, when they claim that they borrow West/USA money for bigger consumption than they can paid. That's nonsense because of 3 factors. 1. Those loans will be really marginal if USA industry will not go to China. 2. China lend money to lubricate own export (they export a lot to Africa, M. East, but more $ they take in resources - its generally West who propel China economy now). OIn other world, without them USA or west will not import so much. 3 They also take advantage of nowadays system in USA, because it gives them one problem off - cheaper dollar=less export (not only to USA, but elsewhere too) + not really strong competition from USA.
The situation will be that when dollar hegemony will be ended (it's round the corner) then USA will loose much of it's interests around the world. Then it will be harder to invest foreign on markets. This will lead to return some of investments and factories from abroad (remember of less transnational dollar + it's weaker exchange rate). This also show that in house reforms must be taken.
It will hurt China, Russia and EU to some degree too. USA can win a some from trade blockade, because it imports more than exports (not only from China but from EU too). But it will like taking crown from head and passing it to China + abdication from 2nd, 3rd or 4th place in global powers lists. And that could be challenging. But same objectives can me more gently achieved by allowing dollar to became #2 or even #3. And second scenario can't be prevented. First one is only more rapid one. Both scenarios will mean meltdown for EU economies (look at trade/investment benefits from USA, while China/Russia is makes big loss for EU in long term). This is alo a factor that could reshape world stage. Germany now want to trade with USA (because it pays for them) besides of those NSA scandals etc. And because they know that USA was inspiration and rescue for Europe in World War II and especially after. EU was not modeled on undemocratic Communist Easter Block, but by capitalism and democracy. And after USA will make "return from Europe", EU landscape can worsen a lot, and now we see first signs of it: more chauvinists, worse economical situation, EU more prone to east influence (=more deepening trade deficit with China, Russia), etc.

Reply to Frank Koscielny
January 26, 2015 - 09:48

I won't be disappointed though. Everything has a reason no need to explain it period.

Monty Waight
May 28, 2014 - 12:03

Re China dominance. Have you ever read The Vision by David Wilkerson, published in 1973? It's a detailed revelation of how
forces, existing then, will result in the dominance of the world by Europe. He stated that this rev he got was pointing to the Biblical
prophesy that a revived Roman Empire would appear to gain global hegemony of the world, just before the return of Jesus Christ. I was in the USA in 73' and interest in this topic was vastly popular. Nothing has happened since to invalidate his vision, but
for it to happen it would seem that there must be cataclysmic changes ahead on the international scene for China, and I wonder how many Americans are watching its rise with this awareness in the back of their minds?

February 01, 2014 - 23:01

I think China rise to superpower will be peaceful one. PRC never interfering other nation's domestic problem like what USA did(almost everytime). Honestly, I dislike China claim over Spratly islands but Diaoyu/Senkaku is definitely China/Taiwan territory since ancient time handed to Japan by USA unknown to China to be a time bomb for China sentiment over Japanese war crime.

Reply to Davin
August 03, 2014 - 16:33

"never interfering other nation's domestic problem like what USA did"

Umm, you are highly wrong and ignorant.

Battle of Chamdo against Tibet.
Korean War - Over 400,000 Chinese killed while invading South Korea.

1959 Tibetan Uprising - Despite wanting independence, China had no problem killing 87 thousand Tibetans.

Vietnam War - China got involved, again.

Sino-Indian War - China attacks India.

Sino-Vietnamese War - China invades Vietnam

2nd Sudanese Civil War - China supports the Sudan government which killed more civilians than any war since WW2.

You should get your facts straight, buddy. You do not know what you're talking about.

It'd be nice if they would allow my reply to show up.

Reply to Davin
October 23, 2014 - 06:38

Got a word or two for repeated incursions in Indian-controlled territory?! Pesky troublemakers!

Mike Doria
December 17, 2013 - 17:01

What do I think about the rise of China? Scary. The Chinese government and military seem to be out for world dominance. they do not show much respect for international law and do not treat neighboring countries as equals.

Reply to Mike Doria
Patrick Dixon
December 18, 2013 - 16:56

Well - you could argue that the systematic monitoring of international phone calls and web traffic by the US is also a violation... and use of drones to kill citizens of another country on a neutral country's territory (Pakistan) - I am just saying these things look differently if you are a Chinese national living in China, or a Russian national living in Russia.

Reply to Mike Doria
August 02, 2014 - 00:24

Umm, the drones are allowed by the governments of the countries. And monitoring phone calls does not violate international rules. So, yeah, know. Get your facts straight.

Mike Doria
December 17, 2013 - 16:58

What do I think about the rise of China? Scary. The Chinese government and military seem to be out for world dominance. they do not show much respect for international law and do not treat neighboring countries as equals.

Lucas Langlois
October 15, 2013 - 23:51

Very interesting article to show the impact that China will have.
I would have more a question if this expansion of China will have an impact on developing country like Brasil and other South American countries?
Thanks for your response.

Reply to Lucas Langlois
Patrick Dixon
December 18, 2013 - 18:41

Yes - China's economic growth will have an impact on every other nation. One of the biggest drivers of growth in some other emerging nations is now China's demand for their commodities, food, products and services - eg Africa.

Pat McKown
January 24, 2013 - 13:54

More solutions are buried than adopted. What the future holds is not anyone's guess.

Reply to Pat McKown
Patrick Dixon
January 24, 2013 - 14:06

Interesting comment - can you expand a bit?

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