Future of Rail in 2030

Keynote for Wabtec on Future of Rail in 2030: innovation in railroad innovation; railway locomotives, carriages, signalling, rail freight.

Does rail have a future? What is the outlook for the rail industry in 2030? Is High Speed Rail the future? What is the outlook for rail transportation?

It typically takes 5 years to take railway locomotive innovations to market, with 10 years production life and track life of 50 years, so we need to take a long term view of innovation in the rail industry.

Hyper-modular approach to innovation including AI / Artificial Intelligence.

Rail strategies can be overtaken by events which means leadership agility.

In 2080 long distance rail freight will still be 10% lower cost than truck / road freight, and it will still be cheaper to ship containers over 5000km than by road for 500km.

And it will still also be true that 60% of manufacturing revenues in many nations will be production by companies employing less than 100 people.

All these factors will shape the future of rail logistics.

Expect 3.5% per year growth globally in rail investment.

Expect a stampede towards carbon zero freight - eg locomotive engines running on green hydrogen.

Expect huge investment in integrator technologies - whether to deliver carbon zero or to meet expectations of tomorrow's customers.

Video thumbnail image licensed by Shutterstock.

* "How AI Will Change Your Life - A Futurist's Guide to a Super-Smart World" - Patrick Dixon's new book on AI is published in September 2024 by Profile Books.  It contains 38 chapters on the impact of AI across different industries, government and our wider world, including the impact of AI on rail transport.