How US trade tariff chaos will settle and why

2 April 2025. US Tarrifs and Trade War: 4 hours after my opening keynote today at massive Logistics World event in Mexico, President Trump confirmed 25% import tariffs on many goods "until Fentanyl illegal drug trafficking emergency sorted out". But the charts I showed today: Fentanyl, Cocaine and Heroin seizures are already massively down, as is illegal cross-border migration.

These and other factors tell us that the 25% tariff for Mexico exports to US will likely end up being far lower after negotiations conclude.

Same is likely in many other nations, especially Canada which has hardly any Fentanyl cross-border traffic - attention-grabbing tariffs will be followed by lower profile downward adjustments.

We need to understand wider picture. US Presidents have limited legal powers to impose major taxes or tarrifs except in times of "national emergency". By declaring Fentanyl smuggling as a national emergency, President Trump has found a legal work-around for some of the steps announced today.

Global market pressures have greater power than US Presidents

However other factors are at work - global market pressures will force the US to resolve most major tariff disputes over the next 6-12 months.  

Current chaos will mean corporations cannot make medium to long term decisions about investment and will continue to wipe out stock market valuations, pension assets and personal investments.  

And tarrifs are in truth a tax on consumption - impacting the price that people buy imported goods - so directly increase prices in the short term.  

US mid-term elections getting close - lack of time for US economy to recover 

Opinion polls will really matter in 12 months time.

Mid term US elections are barely 18 months away and President Trump will be facing his own re-election in just over 3.5 years.

Opportunities in chaos

Core message today - those with cash, agility and good connections will find massive business opportunities in the midst of trading chaos globally, as other companies fall over.

Second core message: megatrends will continue to drive massive longer term changes in our wider world, and will ultimately be more significant than current tariff chaos and trade disputes.

Examples include rise of emerging markets, where 1 billion children in the world are living and growing up (v ageing nations), wealth contrasts driving mass migrations (legal or not), improved health and life expectancy, massive jump in digital / AI, global race towards greater sustainability and so on.