1. Global economy survived the first and second crises better than many thought would be the case. Thanks to emerging markets, the global economy grew in every year of the banking crisis except 2009. Growth in China slowed but never below 5-7% a year. And a year after COVID lockdowns first began, US stock markets had largely recovered, while many global companies had excellent cash reserves, ready for investing in growth. Of course, part of that was because of levels of Central Bank and government support that one would normally only see in wartime. For example, a year after Lockdown began, the UK government was still paying the salaries of around 25% of all privately employed workers. 2. Publicly listed corporations around the world are sitting on over $12 trillion cash reserves (excluding financial companies) That’s more than the entire foreign exchenge reserves of all naitons. Expect large-scale investment over the next 5‒10 years....

* "How AI Will Change your life - A Futurist's Guide to a Super-Smart World" - Patrick Dixon's latest book on AI is published in September 2024 by Profile Books.  It contains 38 chapters on the impact of AI across different industries, government and our wider world, including chapters on the future impact of AI on emerging market economies and jobs.

Update in July 2022 on this April 2021 travel industry forecast.  Paris is heaving with tourists, Barcelona the same, while many flights between Europe and the US are packed to bursting. As I predicted would happen, a rapid bounce-back has taken place.

Along with manufacturing, retail and banking, the travel industry will be a fundamental engine of future globalisation, despite the huge impact of the COVID pandemic in 2020 and 2021. The reason is that human beings are genetically programmed to travel as hunter-gatherers, and have an irresistible urge to explore. (Written April 2021)

And as experience showed in 2020, whenever local, national or regional restrictions ease a little, huge numbers started booking trips almost immediately.  This was all helped by global COVID passports - showing evidence of COVID infection in the past, or vaccination or very recent negative tests. 

Just as I predicted in April 2021, we are now seeing pent-up demand, as people look to spend more than usual on holidays using saved up budgets during lockdown.

Therefore, whatever happens in the current pandemic, to the global economy, or in other world events, in general terms over the next 30 years we can expect the number of people travelling each day to grow dramatically as wealth increases, and as real costs of transport continue to fall.

Consider this: 85% of humanity lives in emerging markets, and most people in the world are still dreaming of taking their first flight one day.The greatest growth in travel will be within Asia, and in people from Asia visiting outside their own region. We will see a rapid increase in the number and size of regional airports, high-speed rail networks, and new roads.

* "How AI Will Change your life - A Futurist's Guide to a Super-Smart World" - Patrick Dixon's latest book on AI is published in September 2024 by Profile Books.  It contains 38 chapters on the impact of AI across different industries, government and our wider world, including chapters on the future impact of AI on the travel industry including tourism.

First question: You warned many times over the last few years of the risks of a new viral pandemic.  What do you think will happen next with COVID?

Yes.  In The Future of Almost Everything for example, my 17th book published in 2019, I again warned of viral pandemic threats.  

On page 19, I wrote a list of Wild Cards - top of which was ""Viral plaque - rapidly spreading, cases in every nation".  Another on the list was "Miscalculation by a powerful nation leading to sustained regional conflict" - but that's another story.

I have been tracking many new mutant viruses for over three decades now and on average we see one every year, often emerging in the Far East for reasons we don't fully understand.When I was 30 years old, my work caring for those dying of cancer at home was suddenly overwhelmed by people dying from a new mutant virus that appeared from nowhere, having jumped from animals into humans.  It was spreading fast, created massive fear and panic, with no vaccine or cure, and that virus has since killed 35 million people.Over 30 years later, despite vast research efforts we still have no vaccine nor a cure.  That virus was HIV, causing AIDS.  

So I have always worried that we would see more mutant viruses appear from nowhere and go global.

* "How AI Will Change your life - A Futurist's Guide to a Super-Smart World" - Patrick Dixon's latest book on AI is published in September 2024 by Profile Books.  It contains 38 chapters on the impact of AI across different industries, government and our wider world - including new risks of viral pandemics.

What is the outlook for the energy industry for the next decade?  I have advised many of the largest green energy companies and traditional energy companies on the future. 

In “The Future of Almost Everything” published in 2019, I warned that unstable prices would create a lot of chaos in future for energy companies, and I was right.  Energy forecasts always have to be seen in the context of the global economy, geopolitics, technology, innovation, urbanisation, migration and social transformation.  I wrote in 2019 that we would be likely to see unstable oil prices with all kinds of supply and demand shocks, and prices ranging from above $180 to below $40. Just so. 

And I also wrote that these price convulsions would drive many green energy companies out of business, which is what is already happening...

* "How AI Will Change your life - A Futurist's Guide to a Super-Smart World" - Patrick Dixon's latest book on AI is published in September 2024 by Profile Books.  It contains 38 chapters on the impact of AI across different industries, government and our wider world, including the impact of AI on the future energy industry.