Russian strategy in Ukraine under pressure. Longer term impact of military action on economy

Emerging markets will dominate global growth - where 85% of humanity lives. Economy keynote speaker

Trust is the most important thing. Future of logistics and supply chain management - keynote speaker

Future of Sales and Marketing beyond COVID - hybrid event in Vilnius: physical audience of 800 + 300 virtual. Digital marketing, location marketing. How to create MAGIC in new marketing campaigns. Future of Marketing Keynote Speaker

Chances of 2 people in 70 having same birthday? Managing Risk in Banking and Financial Services. Why the greatest risks are combinations of very unlikely events, which happen far more often than you expect. Keynote speaker on risk management

Compliance is Dead. How to build trust. Reputation of banks and financial services. Compliance Risks. Why 100% compliance with regulations, ESG requirements etc is often not enough to prevent reputational damage

Life's too short to do things you don't believe in! Why passionate belief in the true value of what you are selling or doing is the number one key to success. Secret of all leadership and marketing - keynote for 1100 people in Vilnius October 2021

Why you can't innovate on Zoom or Teams meetings - Innovation is almost impossible unless breathing same air, in same room

Why the key to rapid innovation is team diversity - survey global CEOs. Innovation keynote speaker

Future Manufacturing 5.0. Lessons from personal life for all manufacturers. Manufacturing Keynote

Future of Manufacturing: diagnostics; predictive analytics, little data and cybersecurity. Keynote

Manufacturing 5 0: The truth about robots, robotics and automation. Future of Manufacturing Keynote

The truth about BitCoin Crisis for secure payments - BitCoin uses as much energy globally as the entire power generation of 180 nations combined. Blockchain issue. Shocking truth on BitCoin unsustainability - similar problems for all Blockchain technology

A single BitCoin transaction uses as much electricity as your home for a week.

Just as I predicted several years ago, we have seen billions won and lost in a gamble on volatile prices of BitCoin, without really understanding BitCoin limitations.

Here are some facts about BitCoin that will limit its future:

- BitCoins are made by solving a complex digital puzzle

- BitCoins have no actual value – the price people are willing to pay is based on what people think they may be worth in future

- It takes a lot of computing power to create them – and computers

- It takes 94,000 kw hours at the time of writing to produce a single BitCoin

- Bitcoin “mining” uses more power globally a year than 159 entire nations 

- That’s more power on this experiment last year than 2 billion of the poorest people used – 1 billion of which have no access to a national grid

- Consumption is already equivalent to 25% of the UK’s entire energy output

- Also equivalent to entire power use by 4.3 million homes across America

- That’s the same as 24 megatons of carbon dioxide or 1.2 million transatlantic flights

- A single BitCoin transaction, logged in a BlockChain, burns up as much energy as your home for a week – so forget about using BitCoins as a global day-to-day currency

Read more: The truth about BitCoin Crisis for secure payments - BitCoin uses as much energy globally as the entire power generation of 180 nations combined. Blockchain issue. Shocking truth on BitCoin unsustainability - similar problems for all Blockchain technology

 

Future of the Travel Industry after COVID - THE PARTY HAS BEGUN, future of aviation beyond COVID, what next for tourism and business? Why the travel industry will be an engine of global economic growth. Travel industry keynote speaker at Seminarium event

Futurist Keynote by Patrick Dixon at event for Seminarium in Chile

THE POST-COVID PARTY HAS BEGUN.  Update in July 2022 on this April 2021 travel industry forecast.  Paris is heaving with tourists, Barcelona the same, while many flights between Europe and the US are packed to bursting.

Along with manufacturing, retail and banking, the travel industry will be a fundamental engine of future globalisation, despite the huge impact of the COVID pandemic in 2020 and 2021 onwards. The reason is that human beings are genetically programmed to travel as hunter-gatherers, and have an irresistible urge to explore. (Written April 2021)

And as experience showed in 2020, whenever local, national or regional restrictions ease a little, huge numbers start booking trips almost immediately.  This will all be helped by global COVID passports - showing evidence of COVID infection in the past, or vaccination or very recent negative tests. Yes we can expect great debate about COVID passports: on the one hand COVID passports are a practical and common sense solution, allowing people who can prove they have immunity to travel or attend major events etc.  

Just as I predicted in April 2021, we are now seeing pent-up demand, as people look to spend more than usual on holidays using saved up budgets during lockdown.

Therefore, whatever happens in the current pandemic, to the global economy, or in other world events, in general terms over the next 30 years we can expect the number of people travelling each day to grow dramatically as wealth increases, and as real costs of transport continue to fall.

Consider this: 85% of humanity lives in emerging markets, and most people in the world are still dreaming of taking their first flight one day.The greatest growth in travel will be within Asia, and in people from Asia visiting outside their own region. We will see a rapid increase in the number and size of regional airports, high-speed rail networks, and new roads.

Read more: Future of the Travel Industry after COVID - THE PARTY HAS BEGUN, future of aviation beyond COVID, what next for tourism and business? Why the travel industry will be an engine of global economic growth. Travel industry keynote speaker at Seminarium event

   

Future of Law Firms, Accountancy, Auditing and Global Consulting Companies, Professional Service Firms. Future of government regulation on professional services. Why compliance is dead except to keep people out of prison. Focus on Ethics - Keynote speaker

There are very few global consulting and accounting firms, and this is already causing big problems for regulators, unhappy when the same companies audit the same accounts for years. We should be worried when auditors are from the same organisation as consultants, when huge companies find members of their teams on both sides of complex deals. It is hardly surprising that so many audits of multinationals have turned out to be so misleading to investors.

Arthur Andersen disappeared almost overnight as a result of the Enron scandal, and it will only take one more such event to create a crisis, because only three global firms would remain. Expect further regulations about companies needing to change their auditors every few years, and more restrictions on conflicts of interest.

As I predicted, Auditors are becoming more strictly audited themselves regarding their own performance.  Auditors will increasingly be held legally responsible when banks or insurers or other types of company fail spectacularly, soon after a clean audit. It is outrageous that global auditors have been able to walk away without penalty, from large companies that collapse, only days or weeks after being paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to vet them for accounting irregularities and risks.

Read more: Future of Law Firms, Accountancy, Auditing and Global Consulting Companies, Professional Service Firms. Future of government regulation on professional services. Why compliance is dead except to keep people out of prison. Focus on Ethics - Keynote speaker

   

Future of the insurance industry - insurance will be vital to economic growth.Huge growth in emerging markets driven by 85% of the world who have no insurance of any kind. Managing insurance risks with better underwriting. Insurance trends keynote speaker

I have advised many of the world's largest insurers and reinsurance companies on managing risk and identifying key trends.

Insurance is as fundamental to a stable and prosperous society as banking, hospitals and schools.Y et more than 3 billion people have never heard of insurance, do not know how it works, and have no idea how to get hold of it.

Expect rapid growth, therefore, of basic insurance in emerging markets, targeted mainly at the emerging middle class.

Health insurance will lead the way, after insurance types that people are forced by law to buy, such as motor insurance. Expect a boost in many nations in sales of life or health products, encouraged by tax rebates, especially where they are structured to contain an element of saving.

Many who are unbanked today will gain their first insurance cover using a smartphone, or through micro-loans groups and savings associations.

Read more: Future of the insurance industry - insurance will be vital to economic growth.Huge growth in emerging markets driven by 85% of the world who have no insurance of any kind. Managing insurance risks with better underwriting. Insurance trends keynote speaker

   

Future of Surveillance - and what it means for your personal privacy and freedom. Next generation state surveillance, use and abuse by dictatorships and security services as well as private companies and individuals

BIG BROTHER IS WATCHING YOU – George Orwell’s 1984 gives a chilling picture of how technol­ogy could be used by a dictator to control millions.

But the tools available today have advanced far beyond what Orwell saw.  Most governments of larger nations are using a wide range of digital tools to secretly monitor people on a very large scale.  

Tomorrow’s tools will take this to an entirely new level including instantaneous, accurate face recognition from fixed video cameras in public places, through to recognition by mobile cameras worn by police or undercover agents.  

Read more: Future of Surveillance - and what it means for your personal privacy and freedom. Next generation state surveillance, use and abuse by dictatorships and security services as well as private companies and individuals

   

Reactions against Virtual Work and Relationships - Life beyond Covid - what it means for retail, music, leisure and the workplace, for dating, families, wider world. Why there will always be premium for "breathing the same air". Teams need to meet

Personal lives are measured in minutes, major events in seconds. And COVID has forced our world to become even more virtual. Our world is obsessed with instant information. 

Digital addiction was already one of the commonest causes of anxiety, depression and complete mental breakdown, particularly among young people, before COVID, even more so during lockdown.

During the height of the COVID crisis, hundreds of millions have been forced to spend far more time online or on video calls than they would otherwise have chosen, and much of that will revert.

Before the pandemic began, the average 15-25 year old in the UK already spent an average of 4 hours a day on a mobile, checking for messages every 9 minutes, with time online directly correlated with risk of mental health issues.

But that is nothing compared to the Philippines, where a 2019 survey reported people saying that they spent an average of 10 hours online.

Read more: Reactions against Virtual Work and Relationships - Life beyond Covid - what it means for retail, music, leisure and the workplace, for dating, families, wider world. Why there will always be premium for "breathing the same air". Teams need to meet

   

Future of the Music Industry - life beyond COVID, importance of live events, spatial audio, copyright protection using blockchain - NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens), next generation streaming. Media and Music industry trends - keynote speaker

The music industry post-COVID will face meltdown and chaos, then rebound.

Before the COVID pandemic Music was still a $74bn a year industry, despite digital change, and spent $15bn a year on new recordings, ut big labels were already in crisis, threatened by streaming services which already generate $8bn a year in revenues. American music revenues collapsed from $14.6 billion in 1999 to $6.3 billion in 2009, but began to recover after slashing costs.

Over 50% of their revenues in some nations already come from digital streaming, which grew 45% in 2017 in the UK, with overall revenues growing by 10.6%.  But then COVID-19 hit, which resulted in three big changes.  Firstly, more time listening at home, and secondly complete freeze in live performances, and thirdly, great difficulty in bringing groups of musicians, writers, producers and others together to create new music.

Just before the COVID pandemic, 60% of music industry revenues were from live performances, up from 33% in 2000. And live music will return. Indeed the more virtual our lives, the greater the premium for breathing the same air as real musicians, hence buskers on the street continue to earn significant amounts if they are talented.

Despite talk of NFTs / non-fungible tokens, based on blockchains, being used to protect music copyright or in licensing, their use will be very limited over the next 5 years, mainly held back by massive energy requirements to run blockchains.

Read more: Future of the Music Industry - life beyond COVID, importance of live events, spatial audio, copyright protection using blockchain - NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens), next generation streaming. Media and Music industry trends - keynote speaker

   

Future of the Global Economy Post Covid - impact of trillions of dollars of economic stimulus and wider megatrends on longer term economic growth in developed nations and emerging markets

Keynote Speaker at Seminarium Chile on Logistics, Supply Chains and Global Economy

* Patrick Dixon advises many of the world's largest corporations on global trends, including banks, insurers and governments. 

What factors will shape longer term economic growth globally?  What about life beyond COVID?  What will be the impact of the combined economic stimulus of Central Banks?

There have been two major economic crises in the last 12 years: the banking crisis and now the pandemic crisis.

Major economic factors that will shape the next decade and beyond

Here are the major factors likely to shape the global economy over the next decade and beyond: (Article posted in April 2021 - judge for yourself how right it was.)

Read more: Future of the Global Economy Post Covid - impact of trillions of dollars of economic stimulus and wider megatrends on longer term economic growth in developed nations and emerging markets

   

Cybersecurity - one of world's greatest threats. 12 steps for every business and individual. Cyberattacks, ransomware etc will cost >$5 trillion a year by 2025. How to stop hacking, ransomware attacks, data loss, IP theft. Keynote speaker on cybersecurity

Future of Banking - Cybersecurity risks, Ransomware attacks etc - Xpedition keynote speaker

When you combine all the power and all the weaknesses of the Internet of Things, Big Data, Cloud Computing and Artificial Intelligence, together with 6 billion smartphones, computers and other smart devices, the result is a gigantic range of lucrative targets, and a potential future global emergency.  

As I warned years ago, every large company in the world is now experiencing frequent, severe cyber-attacks, on their own systems or in the Cloud, whether they know or not. Much of this is linked to activity supported and encouraged by governments, attacking the economies and intellectual capital of other nations.

As we will see, over 4 billion people have already been personally affected by theft of their private details – and this is just the beginning of the security nightmare, which will drive huge investment in new security measures by all large corporations and by governments.

Read more: Cybersecurity - one of world's greatest threats. 12 steps for every business and individual. Cyberattacks, ransomware etc will cost >$5 trillion a year by 2025. How to stop hacking, ransomware attacks, data loss, IP theft. Keynote speaker on cybersecurity

   

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