Truth about Blockchain and BitCoins – impact of Blockchain on your industry, business and wider world. BitCoin and other cryptocurrencies - keynote comment

I have advised hundreds of the world’s largest corporations on digital trends, and one of the biggest that CEOs and boards are now talking about is Blockchain. What is Blockchain and what does it mean for us?  Could Blockchain wipe out our business, or will Blockchain help us grow? Here is a comment after my recent keynote for the global team of Generali Insurance, on Blockchain.

Blockchain means that anyone in the world with online access can prove a particular document exists, when it was sent, who it was sent to and so on.  We can also prove that an event has taken place, in a way which is fully transparent to everyone who needs to know this around the world. The implications of this are going to be huge.  And it will be many years before we work it all out.  

Read more: Truth about Blockchain and BitCoins – impact of Blockchain on your industry, business and wider world. BitCoin and other cryptocurrencies - keynote comment

 

How to spot Fake Forecasts, Bad Analysts and False Futurists - secret of more accurate forecasting. Shocking truth about easily avoidable Futurist errors

It is often said that no one can predict the future, but the truth is that forecasting is far easier than you may think, because many things change more slowly than media hype suggests.  I know this from advising hundreds of the world's largest corporations on the impact of key industry megatrends, for more than 20 years, and from writing many books about the future since 1987.  I’m not talking about share prices, commodity prices or currency rates.  Anything to do with markets is as difficult to predict two months ahead as the British weather. Every now and again in history there is a genuine step-change, for example the collapse of communism, or a global war, or the creation of the web, but such things are rare.  That’s why most board room debates about the future are not usually about direction of a trend, which tends to be fairly obvious, but about timing or speed of that trend. Judge me on my own record - content on this website goes back to 1996.


Here's what I wrote a while back for Wired Magazine (adapted)...


It is often said that no one can predict the future, but the truth is that forecasting is far easier than you may think, because many things change far more slowly than media hype suggests.  I know this from advising corporations on the impact of key megatrends, over the last 20 years, and from writing many books about the future since 1987.

Read more: How to spot Fake Forecasts, Bad Analysts and False Futurists - secret of more accurate forecasting. Shocking truth about easily avoidable Futurist errors

   

The truth about North Korea, President Trump, the real risk of war, and why options for the Pentagon and rest of world are so limited. What is likely to happen next.

Despite all the hot words from President Trump and some of the absurd commentary in the media, here is the truth about North Korea’s rapid military direction and about the complete impotence of the rest of the world.  And all taking place at a time when there are more geopolitical risks globally than for 30 years.

The fact is, that as we see every day in the failed state of Zimbabwe, or Afghanistan or more recently in the chaos of Venezuela, or in Syria or Iraq, the most powerful military forces in the world can be humbled and humiliated by the resilience and complexity of the tiniest of nations, however chaotic or weak they may appear to be.

Read more: The truth about North Korea, President Trump, the real risk of war, and why options for the Pentagon and rest of world are so limited. What is likely to happen next.

   

Truth about Mobile Payments, BitCoins, BlockChain and Cryptocurrencies - future of digital payments and banking. Why Telcos AND Retail Banks face major challenges

Video for Google on Digital Payments

I often give keynotes at banking conferences on mobile banking and digital payments - and BitCoins are often discussed. For over two decades, many people have been trying to develop a digital alternative to physical bank notes – to pay for things online in a fast, easy, secure and totally anonymous, private way. Are BitCoins the answer?

Read more: Truth about Mobile Payments, BitCoins, BlockChain and Cryptocurrencies - future of digital payments and banking. Why Telcos AND Retail Banks face major challenges

   

Future Trends - impact on Portugal and rest of world. Managing risk and uncertainty, robotics and AI, and future ethics. Summary of keynote.

Interview for AESE Business School in Lisbon - about to give a keynote on global trends - 19th October 2017.  Here are major issues that are impacting very large numbers of companies across the world.  I usually group them as six factors that spell the word FUTURE, each of which forms one face of a cube.  The energy which spins the cube is EMOTION – reactions to events or trends are usually more important than events themselves.

“The world can change faster than you can hold a board meeting”, you said in a presentation. Among the hundreds of possibilities of change and innovation, what are the key trends do you foresee as having the most impact in business and personal life in this new World 4.0?"

Read more: Future Trends - impact on Portugal and rest of world. Managing risk and uncertainty, robotics and AI, and future ethics. Summary of keynote.

   

Future of Manufacturing 4.0, Logistics and Supply Chain Management, managing risks, saving costs, seizing new markets - Futurist keynote video for IBEC manufacturing conference

Keynote on Future of Manufacturing - for IBEC. Topics covered include managing uncertainty Future of Manufacturing 4.0; Digital Enterprises 4.0. Future of robotics. Future of 3D printing. Impact of online and mobile e-commerce on retail supply chains and customer expectations. Impact of global scale on manufacturing. Future of niche manufacturing, self-diagnosing and self-healing factory assembly lines. Why supply chains are becoming more regionalised.  Why radical changes are coming to manufacturing in China. Impact of digital tracking on manufacturing, and supply chain management.  Why Little Data is even more important than Big Data.  Truth about cyber-risks. Future of green tech innovation and green tech impact on every aspect of manufacturing.  Simple ways to cut more than 50% of road haulage energy use.

Read more: Future of Manufacturing 4.0, Logistics and Supply Chain Management, managing risks, saving costs, seizing new markets - Futurist keynote video for IBEC manufacturing conference

   

The truth about Northern Ireland’s borders after Brexit – passports and customs - and how demographic shifts will hugely alter political balance. Comment after keynote.

29th September 2017

A lot of nonsense is talked about Brexit.  Here is the truth.

Sorting out all Brexit issues affecting the borders of Northern Ireland could take many years to fully resolve.  At the same time, the EU has made it clear that until a practical solution is agreed, even if such a solution is fine-tuned in future, discussions on a trade deal post-Brexit, will be on permanent hold.

There is a small chance that the entire Brexit process will be halted by a further vote in the UK, which could form part of an election manifesto commitment at the next election.  However this is becoming less likely at the moment, because opinion polls across the UK as a whole are more in favour of Brexit than when the original vote to leave took place.  (At the same time, paradoxically, opinion polls in other EU nations are becoming more positive about being part of the EU.)

For the purposes of this article, let us assume therefore that Brexit happens.

The EU has made absolutely 100% clear that they will not under any circumstances tolerate a breach anywhere in the EU wall controlling goods, services and movements of people across the border into the EU.  That is, unless

Read more: The truth about Northern Ireland’s borders after Brexit – passports and customs - and how demographic shifts will hugely alter political balance. Comment after keynote.

   

The Truth about Brexit - part 2 - what is likely to happen next and why, real impact likely to be very different than most expect. Why a second vote on Brexit is still a real possibility.

Update 4th September 2017

Before and shortly after the Brexit vote I correctly predicted that the UK economy would NOT go into immediate meltdown as so many had falsely forecast.  A lot of people are still talking a lot of nonsense.

Here is the truth about the current situation and what is likely to happen next:

Read more: The Truth about Brexit - part 2 - what is likely to happen next and why, real impact likely to be very different than most expect. Why a second vote on Brexit is still a real possibility.

   

Leadership Ethics in European Commission? BIG pressures revealed by participants - integrity and corruption? Watch disturbing results of secret e-polling during keynote - VIDEO

What is ethical leadership? Leadership ethics and integrity in public life.

How do we encourage leadership integrity and fight corruption in leaders? At this session and afterwards, many participants confessed that they had been under significant pressure by bosses to do major things that they thought were unethical.

Keynote conference speaker Patrick Dixon -- lecture at European Commission.

Why leadership has to be based on trust, not just position, appealing to...

Read more: Leadership Ethics in European Commission? BIG pressures revealed by participants - integrity and corruption? Watch disturbing results of secret e-polling during keynote - VIDEO

   

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