Emerging markets will drive global economic growth for next 60 years - where 85% of humanity lives. Global Economy and Macrotrends Keynote Speaker

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future of Emerging Markets - Keynote Speaker

Economic and social trends will be dominated by emerging markets. Extract from keynote for Seminarium in Chile. Article below posted April 2021 - you can judge accuracy.

1. Global economy survived the first and second crises better than many thought would be the case. Thanks to emerging markets, the global economy grew in every year of the banking crisis except 2009. Growth in China slowed but never below 5-7% a year. And a year after COVID lockdowns first began, US stock markets had largely recovered, while many global companies had excellent cash reserves, ready for investing in growth. Of course, part of that was because of levels of Central Bank and government support that one would normally only see in wartime. For example, a year after Lockdown began, the UK government was still paying the salaries of around 25% of all privately employed workers. 2. Publicly listed corporations around the world are sitting on over $12 trillion cash reserves (excluding financial companies) That’s more than the entire foreign exchenge reserves of all naitons. Expect large-scale investment over the next 5‒10 years....

* "Life with AI - How to survive and succeed in a super-smart world" - Patrick Dixon's latest book on AI is published in September 2024 by Profile Books.  It contains 38 chapters on the impact of AI across different industries, government and our wider world, including chapters on the future impact of AI on emerging market economies and jobs.

Read more: Emerging markets will drive global economic growth for next 60 years - where 85% of humanity lives. Global Economy and Macrotrends Keynote Speaker

Shocking facts about your future - how 11 billion people will eat, sleep and breathe in our future world where 1% owns 65% of the wealth, 85% live in emerging markets, with new people movements and revolutionary forces. Futurist keynote speaker

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future of Emerging Markets - Keynote Speaker

Unsustainable population growth

One billion children will become consumers in the next 15 years – the biggest jump in human history.

Today in Africa 350 million children see glimpses of your lifestyle and compare this to their own, surviving on less than $3 a day. Most of them will spend their entire adult lives living in cities, chasing dreams of wealth.

By 2025, most people on the planet will be in Asia.

85% of the world’s population will be living in emerging markets or today’s developing countries by then, mostly in cities.

Only 1 in 7 will be in today’s developed nations, driving less than 10% of the world’s economic growth.

Read more: Shocking facts about your future - how 11 billion people will eat, sleep and breathe in our future world where 1% owns 65% of the wealth, 85% live in emerging markets, with new people movements and revolutionary forces. Futurist keynote speaker

Future of China - 300 year trend that will shake the entire world. Truth about so-called "emerging markets" and future risks for China - Futurist keynote

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future of Emerging Markets - Keynote Speaker

China is a wealthy ‘nation of nations’ with a huge middle class, gigantic manufacturing capacity, its own dotcom boom, the world’s largest high-speed rail network, and one of the best educated workforces in the world. China is evolving rapidly and for many globalised corporations manufacturing in China is becoming a rather old-fashioned idea, because of rising costs.

China is now the world’s largest economy according to the World Bank, on the measure of purchasing power parity (PPP), which looks at what the local currency will actually buy, after adjusting for international exchange rates.  China’s economy will be three times the size of India’s in 2025, as it is today, but we can expect that India will close that gap in the longer term.

On an absolute dollar basis, China will be the world’s largest economy by 2024, propelled by a threefold rise in consumer spending each year from $3.5 trillion in 2014 to $10.5 trillion by 2024. This will all be part of a transition from an export-led, manufacturing economy to a more balanced economy serving Chinese consumers.

Read more: Future of China - 300 year trend that will shake the entire world. Truth about so-called "emerging markets" and future risks for China - Futurist keynote

What Future for Saudi Arabia? Keys to competitiveness, investment, innovation, education, diversify economy - Saudi Arabia keynote

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future of Emerging Markets - Keynote Speaker

Future of Saudi Arabia - keynote at Global Competitiveness Forum (GCF 2015) organised by SAGIA. Comments by Patrick Dixon, Chairman Global Change Ltd, following keynote at the Riyadh event.

With a young and rapidly growing population, a key government objective is to create several million new jobs over the next few years, for nationals rather than for migrant workers.  Indeed the future well-being of the nation may depend on being able to generate enough new jobs, particularly for those from 18-30 years old.  While national policies have been developed to encourage companies to employ local people, Saudi Arabia is also looking to stimulate growth of local business and encourage inward investment. Need a world-class keynote speaker on competitiveness in the Middle East for your event? Phone or e-mail Patrick Dixon now.

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Future of Russia - comments in 2018 on Moscow trip: economy, innovation, business, culture, Russian history, foreign policy, military spending and global influence. Why media forecasts on Russia are often wrong, why travel so important. VIDEO and POST

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future of Emerging Markets - Keynote Speaker

Comments after trip to Moscow (2018), after giving keynote on digital innovation at a big event. Russia is a vibrant nation, with many contrasts across 11 time zones. Nation is being energised by a new generation of highly talented entrepreneurs who have no memory of life under Communism, and who are very similar in many ways in their attitudes to the same generation in Western Europe. Media coverage in Western nations can be very misleading and superficial. There's no substitute for actually visiting a nation, talking to people. Impact of recent events on Russia economy, innovation, business, foreign policy or military spending. Government stimulus of the Russian economy - why this will be difficult to achieve rapidly. Why history is so important in understanding future of Russia, including the impact of the Second World War on Russian psyche and current fears, and of course the fall of the Iron Curtain.

Read more: Future of Russia - comments in 2018 on Moscow trip: economy, innovation, business, culture, Russian history, foreign policy, military spending and global influence. Why media forecasts on Russia are often wrong, why travel so important. VIDEO and POST

Future Reform of State-Owned Enterprises in emerging markets

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future of Emerging Markets - Keynote Speaker

One of the greatest challenges facing emerging markets like China and Vietnam is what to do about State-Owned Enterprises, or nationally owned industries.  There are 145,000 of them in China alone. They generate 35% of China’s GDP and 43% of profits. Many of them survive only with large government subsidies, which distort national markets. They may enjoy lower tax rates than privately owned competitors. They often rely on huge bank loans at preferential rates of interest, crowding out other borrowers, discouraging investment and adding to government liabilities. So what should be done?

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Vietnam - faster growth than some other parts of Asia

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future of Emerging Markets - Keynote Speaker

Labour costs are only half that in China, for same job in same kind of factory.  But that only makes sense if productivity is half, which is unlikely, especially in any newly built manufacturing base.
Expect therefore that the investments will continue – although it may be a challenge to consistently top more than $10bn a year, as has been the case recently, because there are even cheaper destinations such as Myanmar that are opening up.Vietnam – time to catch up with rest of Asia.

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Growth of Asia Exports – Vietnam Leads Emerging Markets. Future of Emerging Markets and Global Economy Keynote Speaker

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future of Emerging Markets - Keynote Speaker

While many people talk a lot about the massive success of China, Indonesia, Phillipines and Asia, in exporting to developed nations, the truth is more complex and somewhat surprising.

A growing proportion of this export growth is to other emerging nations rather than to the developed world. As the graph shows, despite the huge economic downturn in developed nations, and rapid slowing of growth across Asia, Vietnam has outshone its neighbours in 2011 and 2012, with every prospect of continuing to do so. In 2011, exports from Vietnam increased by over 34%, and 24% in 2012.   There are a number of reasons for this.

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Why migration to cities is so vital to China - economic growth. Future of China, demographic trends in Asia. Impact on regional economic growth. Long term outlook for China economy. Futurist Keynote Speaker

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future of Emerging Markets - Keynote Speaker

The Chinese government is planning for up to 300 million people to move to cities in the next decade.  This huge migration will place immense strain on infrastructure and housing, as well as on job creation.  These people are moving for a better life, in hope of higher incomes and opportunity.  The risk is social unrest if economic development fails to keep pace with expectations.Why mass migration to cities will continue in China for 40 years.

Read more: Why migration to cities is so vital to China - economic growth. Future of China, demographic trends in Asia. Impact on regional economic growth. Long term outlook for China economy. Futurist Keynote Speaker

Future of ASEAN - Asian equivalent of EU - Expect big job changes in 2015

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future of Emerging Markets - Keynote Speaker

600 million people, 8.8% of the world's population, live in nations which are part of the ASEAN community. If ASEAN were a single nation, it would rank be the 9th largest economy in the world. A key part of ASEAN 2015 is a proposal that people with skills should be able to move freely from one nation to another without need for work permits or special visas. This is a huge step which could have a huge impact on nations losing or gaining large numbers of skilled workers. Take the UK, which expected around 5,000 new migrant workers to enter the country each year following 10 new countries joining the EU.  The reality was that over a million people arrived from Poland alone during the first three years.

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How street traders drive economic growth in emerging markets

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future of Emerging Markets - Keynote Speaker

It is easy for governments in emerging nations to focus policy on helping or attracting big business, but small family-owned businesses are usually the greatest creator of new jobs, partly because there are so many of them. If a million businesses with an average of 10 employees, each manage to employ an average of just one extra person each, that’s a million new jobs.  But most of these businesses will have started out informally and very small.  Lessons from informal street-traders in India and Vietnam.

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Future of Vietnam - economy, banking, manufacturing, digital, green tech. Futurist keynote speaker on Emerging Markets such as Vietnam / Asia region

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future of Emerging Markets - Keynote Speaker

Futurist keynote speaker: Vietnam's future will be driven by key trends such as economy, technology, demographics, mobile digital and retail banking. One in four of the population of Vietnam is under 14, median age of only 27, with a literacy rate of 94%. Labour costs in many parts of the country are only half those of China and Thailand. Wage inflation in China’s coastal cities is averaging around 12% a year, which will encourage more factories to relocate. Chinese wage inflation for most experienced managers can be as much as 100% a year. Vietnam will therefore continue to attract major manufacturing investment, and has a great future.

Read more: Future of Vietnam - economy, banking, manufacturing, digital, green tech. Futurist keynote speaker on Emerging Markets such as Vietnam / Asia region

Future of Singapore as hub for Asia's emerging markets - Future of Asia and Decline of Europe / America . Futurist Keynote Speaker

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future of Emerging Markets - Keynote Speaker

Singapore along with the rest of the region has continued to enjoy strong economic growth, despite the obsession of Europe and America with a so-called global economic meltdown. Singapore is a natural hub for the region.

It boasts the biggest and busiest port in the world, a huge airport, highly skilled workers, superb infrastructure and world-beating digital networks. Singapore business district contains regional headquarters of many of the largest multinationals, with specialty areas in banking, IT, telecom and international trade.

Video made in 2011 - very accurate.

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1 billion new city dwellers - new markets, property, commodities, marketing

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future of Emerging Markets - Keynote Speaker

Rapid growth of megacities -- impact on commodity prices, infrastructure building projects, multinational investment and real estate development. Impact on national economy.

Demographic pressures ageing population and pressure on housing, future real estate trends and demand for different kinds of property. Urbanisation data in China, Africa, India and other parts of the world - economic growth.

Demographic graphs and tables for Australia showing...

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Future of Emerging Markets Business Trends

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future of Emerging Markets - Keynote Speaker

Future trends and business success in emerging markets, especially India and China. Futurist. Rise of new multinationals, future of telecom, future of banking and financial services, future of insurance, future of aluminium, carbon black and other commodities, future of textiles, manufacturing. Future of retail industry in India and India retail chains.

New global giants. Rapid consolidation, mergers and acquisitions. Future of motivation, war for talent, outsourcing, offshoring and winning the war for talent.

Work-life balance, making a difference, corporate and social responsibility, (CSR), community ...

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