How to Survive the Future

FUTUREWISE - How to survive the FUTURE

Six Faces of Global Change - new edition of book

Managing through the downturn

Many CEOs I know are feeling battered and bruised right now. Hit by one event after another, there’s little time to regroup or reflect, and the top of a corporation can be a lonely place. Profit warnings, share price pressures, painful layoffs and great geopolitical uncertainties can sweep away even the most comprehensive strategies – and that’s despite outstanding management over many years. (This article was published in Leigh Advisor June 2002)

It’s easy to lose sight of the bigger picture in the rush to cut cost and conserve cash. Hopefully you succeed in protecting the business, satisfying shareholders and analysts, but what about morale and momentum in the senior team?

To be a winner in the next three years you need to use the downturn to reshape for growth, propelled by an unshakeable conviction that your mission is still important, that more prosperous times lie ahead, and that in some way your company is helping to build a better kind of world. Your own passion for running the race matters most of all in a downturn when people are insecure and loyalty is tested.

Your corporation’s future will be dominated by six factors, or faces of a cube, spelling F U T U R E. So if you are going to cut, then cut carefully for healthy fresh growth, and take the rest of the workforce with you with a renewed sense of direction. And what direction is that?

Fast: The world is changing faster than boards can think, so survival means scenario planning as far as possible before events happen, with rapid response plans, making every dollar count. Market research can’t predict the future in a rapidly changing world – it just shows what consumers think. We need bifocal leadership: clear short-range thinking and sharp action now to steer through the downturn, as well as accurate board-level vision and steady nerves to see beyond.

Look out for the next big wave of techno-change – we are still in the first day of the digital age, and many corporations are distracted by other pressures. Who’s watching your radar screen? Where does your board get fresh insights from? Who’s bringing external perspectives to protect you from institutional blindness? Who’s watching your own back?

Urban: Big demographic and social “lifestyle” shifts will impact your business in this new decade, century and millennium: fickle fashions, ageing but wealthy populations, retired people inheriting trillions of dollars, aggressive war for top talent, female consumer influence, designer biotech life, human cloning, medical breakthroughs, virtual relationships and a host of other factors, including the huge untapped challenge of megacity markets in emerging economies. These society changes are fundamental to the future shape of your business, in many ways indirectly because they will alter how people think and feel. Soft factors may create your greatest new business opportunities. But are your teams gearing up to exploit them?

Tribal: Although the world is increasingly globalised, tribalism is the most powerful force on earth, when a group of people identify only with each other. It’s more powerful than nuclear bombs, or the combined might of the US, Russian and Chinese military. We see it around the world in 100s of tribal conflicts and tensions and in recent events, fuelled by growing global inequality and anger at perceived injustice. Attention will be focussed around the world on these issues. Terrorism will continue, but will not win. Individuals will respond by sacrificing personal liberties for increased security, and by resolving that normal life must go on.

Yet tribalism is also a huge positive force. It’s the basis of every family and every neighbourhood. Tribalism makes us proud to be who we are, and gives us national identity. It also affects us all through niche branding and product loyalty: every one of your successful products creates a tribe and every successful organisation is one. Tribalism is the secret of your strongest teams, corporate character, people movements and product lines. The key to all successful mergers and leadership is harnessing tribal culture. Team leaders manage up to twelve others, but tribal leaders create dynamic people movements of more than 100,000. Are you making tribalism work for you, rebuilding group confidence and a sense of belonging at a time of workforce reductions?

Universal: The opposite of Tribal is Universal. Globalisation, the emergence of the global super-brand and huge pressures to manage global operations more effectively, using new technologies, emergence of virtual teams and companies.

We are still playing games with globalisation. Many executives I know are already spending more than six weeks a year at 35,000 feet, and it’s no fun anymore. Successful multinationals need totally new management models to grow beyond constraints of constant air travel to meetings. Daylight is now the biggest barrier to the global village – because people have to get out of bed to attend virtual meetings.

The future of Europe – growing soon to 25 nations – will be dominated by conflict between two equal and opposite forces: tribalism is causing many European countries to fragment, and universalism is welding these same fragile nations into one super-state. It is strange that countries are rushing into total one-ness at the same time as neighbours kill each other for speaking with the wrong accent or language. Low-grade ethnic cleansing by intimidation and violence is a daily reality in Europe – not only in bits of former Yugoslavia but also in the UK (Northern Ireland) and elsewhere. Tread carefully in pan-European business deals. It may all look Euro-ised from the outside, but beneath may be pure tribalism.

Globalisation will dominate the shape of all large corporations as competitors realign through rapid mergers, acquisitions, disposals or new partnerships. However reactions to globalisation will grow and require careful handling. Powerful global structures will emerge and affect your international interests. Are you being radical enough in globalising your management style and structures?

Radical: Few of your workforce or clients are likely to be active members of political parties, compared to the vast numbers who have signed petitions or campaigned for causes. With the death of left / right politics and weakening of “big” government power, corporations are increasingly vulnerable to attack by single issue groups. Examples include the war against terrorism, animal welfare, and child labor in the textiles industry. As Swiss banks found with Nazi gold, Shell found with oil rig dumping, Nestle found with baby milk products, Nike with factories in emerging nations, and MacDonalds with beef-contaminated French-fry oil in India, these issues strike hard and their impact can be hard to predict. Clear policies, strong values and rapid media response teams are vital. Are you monitoring this area sufficiently?

Ethical: What kind of world do you want to live in anyway? And what about your children or grandchildren? Whenever I talk to CEOs about the future, they end up talking about the personal concerns they have, their values, priorities, ethics, motivation, and spirituality – and all these will be key issues for large corporations, even more so following recent events.

The heart of America has always been stirred by more than money, but even more so today. For example 60% of adults and teenagers give time to causes they believe in – an average of 200 hours a year each, equivalent in value to 4.5% of GDP or 12% of the Fed budget. We’ve seen a huge increase in a decade and one that preceded September 11. You’ll learn more in five minutes asking a colleague what organisations or causes they give time to, than in five months sharing an office coffee machine.

Retaining and motivating top executives will mean far more than money in future. Personal work has already changed dramatically in the last five years and will continue to do so. It’s much deeper than work-life balance. The key to capturing people’s passion will be showing how your products and services build a better kind of world, not only for individual people and their families, but also for the community and for the whole of humanity. Then people will be proud to work for you, and to by your products and services. How do you measure up?

And finally…. The six faces form a cube but the cube is weighted. Most senior executives see the world mainly as Fast, Urban and Universal – but how many people in a nation need to be very Radical, Ethical and Tribal to change your world? Multinational CEOs and Chairmen usually tell me just 0.5-2%. And just one shareholder on a mission to change a corporation can be enough to keep a CEO awake at night before an AGM. You can’t keep all the faces in view at once so… keep turning the cube.

The Future of Outsourcing
Business processing outsourcing, call centre, IT, offshore HR services, customer support, legal and accounting. Truth about outsourcing impact on emerging economies, US and Europe. Benefits and risks.

YouTube Videos by Dr Patrick Dixon

Future of Ukraine - economy and country
Future of Malaysia Economy
Future of Kazakhstan - economy
Impact of ageing population in Europe and Russia
Purpose of fund management - by Patrick Dixon
Fund Management Risks - Potential Crisis - Patrick Dixon
Wild cards - low probability, high impact events
Why market research gives wrong results - blogging
The world is changing faster than you can make decisions
Future of Malaysia
Innovation
Real estate and construction industry trends
Life insurance, pensions and life expectancy trends
Limits to economic growth and sustainability
Why ports, ships and shipping will dominate global trade
Economic growth of former Soviet Bloc nations, Russia etc
Too late for outsourcing?
Outsourcing in India, China, Asia and Central Europe
Mobile phones, banking and financial services trends
Bottom of the pyramid - selling to the world's poor and making a difference
Microloans, microfinance, microcredit and future of banking
Business values - corporate and social responsibility really matters
Global brands, mergers and demergers
Customer focus and call-centre disasters
Women consumers rule - female customer trends
Insurance market in India, China and rest of Asia
Future of the Petrochemical Industry
Sovereign wealth funds - investment trends
Commodity shortages and prices - global trends
Retail revolution in India
Demographic impact on business
Risk management - leadership in uncertain times - wild cards
Institutional blindness

Blogs - web / video diaries on trends / management by Dr Patrick Dixon

Future Trends - main blog
Future of Banking and Financial Services
Future of Digital Technology
Future of the Telecom Industry
Future of the Pharmaceutical Industry
Future of Management
Future of Marketing
Conference Speakers
Lectures, Slides and Videos
AIDS Care Education and Training (ACET)
Spirituality