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My latest WIRED MAGAZINE feature: How to Predict the Future - the secret to more accurate forecasting and the shocking truth about easily avoidable errors

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It is often said that no one can predict the future, but the truth is that forecasting is far easier than you may think, because many things change more slowly than media hype suggests.  I know this from advising corporations on the impact of key megatrends, over the last 20 years, and from writing many books about the future since 1987.  I’m not talking about share prices, commodity prices or currency rates.  Anything to do with markets is as difficult to predict two months ahead as the British weather. Every now and again in history there is a genuine step-change, for example the collapse of communism, or a global war, or the creation of the web, but such things are rare.  That’s why most board room debates about the future are not usually about direction of a trend, which tends to be fairly obvious, but about timing or speed of that trend.


Read feature by Patrick Dixon in WIRED magazine:


http://www.wired.co.uk/article/how-to-predict-future-past


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