How business will solve global warming

Futurist Topics - Environment

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Global warming is probably one of the greatest threats to long term human survival.  Our future will depend on how we respond today.  Business will provide almost all the discoveries, innovations, technologies, products and services we need.

It’s a $40 trillion new market (over the next 30 years)....But most business leaders are only half awake.

The fastest way to save the world is for every business to take action now. It’s the “right” thing to do and makes great business sense. Ignore this issue and your business could auto-destruct. Take the message, boost your sales and grow your profits.

Faced with an unimaginable catastrophe, the business response to global warming will dwarf anything ever seen before in the history of the world, in numbers of companies, research efforts and sales.

These massive efforts will change forever how we live. 

Why large corporations are already changing

Business is already changing because of:

- Consumer attention
- Activist pressures
- New regulations
- Corporate image
- Cause-related marketing
- Personal decisions by employees
- Huge pressure to reduce costs
- Anticipating further pressures from government and consumers

New “bubbles” of future speculation

Global investment in renewable energy alone is already running at $50bn a year. That’s nothing to what we will see in future:

- Wind
- Solar
- Geothermal
- Nuclear / uranium
- Carbon sequestration (technology and sites)
- Waves
- Tides
- New construction materials
- Battery technology
- Fuel cells
- Biofuel – all aspects
- Composters
- Recycling technology eg cars
- Conversion of CO2 to fuel (eg microbes / algae)
- Consulting services
- Environmental audit
- Carbon markets
- Offsetting schemes (controlling)
- Offset providers / brokers
- Legal and regulatory experts

Stern Report – Missing Most Business Opportunities

The comprehensive Stern Report (2007) suggested that our world needs to spend $400-500bn each year fighting global warming. That’s an additional cost to society of around 1% of all economic activity.  The target is to stop carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere rising higher than 500-550 parts per million (ppm) by 2050, up from 450 ppm today.  But this will mean a significantly warmer world. 

The Stern Report expects this $400-500 billion a year to be spent on changes in:

- Gas supply and distribution                      25%
- Refined petroleum                                24%
- Electricity production and distribution    16%
- Cement production                                19%
- Fertilisers production and use                    5%
- Fishing                                           5%

But the Report calculation only tells a small part of the story.  Hundreds of thousands of new business products and services will be sold that don’t fit the headings above.  The Report estimated additional  costs to society, but most innovations will actually save money.

Take for example geothermal heating systems which will fall in cost rapidly as they are used more widely.  These systems already pay for themselves in 20 years in fuel savings.  Geothermal sales should not be counted as additional costs to society, particularly if phased in as old boilers need replacing, and in new homes being built.  
But as we will see, the global market for geothermal heat systems alone could be worth £50bn a year or $2 trillion dollars over 20 years.

There’s opportunity for innovation and new sales everywhere – many of them hidden to consumers.  It could be something as simple as a new low cost nanotechnology coating for ball bearings, reducing energy use in engines by at least 20%.
For every $1 of “additional cost” to society there will be at least a further $3 sales of products linked in some way to tackling global warming.

New Business Risks from Global Warming

With all this stampede of investors there is also risk to almost every existing business....

- Commodity costs rise (cannot pass on, uncompetitive product)
- Rapid regulatory change
- Activist attack – if you are seen as wasteful or ignorant
- Reputational damage
- Product range looks “last century”
- No need for products in warmer climate
- Impossible to produce eg wine in drought areas
- Extreme weather risks
- Competitors seize “moral high ground” by doing more than you

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