Swine Flu: "Pandemic imminent" says WHO

Futurist Topics - Health

30 April 2009: WHO has raised the alert over Swine Flu to Level 5 - only one step short of a full pandemic.  Two days ago they announced Level 4 had been reached - the first time since the steps were introduced following Sars in 2003. Mexico's President Felipe Calderon announcing partial suspension of all non-essential work and services from 1 May to 5 May. He urged people to stay at home with their families during the shutdown. Swine Flu continues to spread around the world but while the number of suspected cases is rising rapidly, especially in Mexico, the number of cases with formal confirmation remains small.  What can we expect to happen next?  What are the real risks?

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Swine Flu - race to prevent pandemic. Sars lessons

Futurist Topics - Health

Our world is right on the brink of an unstoppable global pandemic - whether or not this occurs will probably become clear within the next 2-3 weeks.  Less than a week after first cases of severe flu were linked to a mutant Swine Flu virus, Swine Flu was confirmed in Mexico, US, UK, Spain, Israel,New Zealand with over 10 other nations reporting suspected cases.  Swine Flu has spread further and faster than Sars did in 2003 - a virus which caused massive business disruption and social chaos in some parts of the world for several months.   Fortunately, early indications are that those infected are responding well to antiviral therapy, plus treatment of secondary chest infections with antibiotics.  Since 1987 I have been predicting the great vulnerability of our world to new mutant viruses or mutations of existing ones.  Lessons from previous mutant viruses and global pandemics.

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Swine Fever - Urgent - "Lancet" on Global Threat

Futurist Topics - Health

Here is the full press release on Swine Flu from the Lancet medical journal.  It highlights the vital role that governments need to take, and also how important it is that people with flu-like symptoms in affected countries stay at home and away from other people.  Those in the poorest nations will be most vulnerable.  Need to do all we can to slow spread even if pandemic looks inevitable in future, to win time to create a vaccine (6 months)

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Swine Flu – Global Pandemic Threat - loss of life and business disruption

Futurist Topics - Health

Governments teams are meeting in emergency sessions around the world to plan urgent responses to Swine Flu Virus (H1N1) after over 1,600 cases were reported in less than 48 hours in Mexico with others reported or suspected in the US, Canada and the UK. By early 27th April 2009 over 1600 cases had already been reported in Mexico with over 100 deaths – up from zero reported cases in just 48 hours. John McCaulay from the National Institute of Medical Research in the UK has said that the death toll could be as high as that from Spanish Flu in 1918-1919 which is thought to have killed 30 million people – out of a much smaller world population – less than half the number of people in the world today.

Even if the spread of Swine Flu Virus is as well contained as Sars was in 2003, it is clear that huge potential exists for business disruption around the world.  Sars only infected 8600 people of which 862 died, but wiped billions of dollars from stock markets in South East Asia and caused major challenges for international travel, as well as social chaos in places like Hong Kong where people feared for weeks to gather in public places.  This mutant version of Swine Flu has jumped from pigs to humans, combining it seems elements of bird flu, swine flu, and human flu.  People who have had human flu in the past are unlikely to be protected, nor those recently vaccinated against human flu.

Dr Patrick Dixon, Chairman of Global Change Ltd  said: "We are in a race against time to prevent a global pandemic.  We must also remember that even if the spread of Swine Flu Virus is as well contained as Sars was in 2003, there could still be huge business disruption around the world.  Sars only infected 8600 people in 2003 of which 862 died, but wiped billions of dollars from stock markets in South East Asia and caused major challenges for international travel, as well as social chaos in places like Hong Kong where people feared for weeks to gather in public places. Sars only infected 8,600 before being contained, but this Swine Flu Virus has probably already infected well over 1,600."

* Dr Patrick Dixon is a Futurist, physician, author of The Truth about AIDS, Futurewise and The Genetic Revolution.  He consults to a wide range of multinationals on health-related trends.  Press / media contact:  MEDIA

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Ageing: How to stop getting old: Impact on Society

Futurist Topics - Health

  Scientific research into ageing. Can we stop getting old? Pharmaceutical company anti-ageing products. Market research into anti-aging. Longevity trends and why life expectancy will be a major issue for banks, pension companies and insurance companies. Demographic trends and length of life, and health care trends. Relationship between wealth and life expectancy. Why government actuarial life tables are incorrect. Impact on retirement age, ageism, discrimination against older workers.

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Future of Pharmaceutical Industry - Video

Futurist Topics - Health

Crisis in the pharmaceutical industry. Lack of innovation in big pharma companies and empty product pipelines compared to biotech companies. Generic competition and product recalls. Drug development and novel substances. Large molecule and small molecule therapeutics. Risk profiles and clinical trials. Side effects, gene profile typing and pharmacogenomics. Health care, wellness, enhanced performance and lifestyle drugs. Patent expiry and intellectual property protection. Legal challenges and research scandals. Biogenerics and large molecule therapeutics. Cellular mechanisms of disease. Unmet needs. Government purchasing policies, future of medicare and health insurance cover. Online pharmacy price pressures. Over the counter and pharmacists - pharmacy products. Neutraceuticals and cosmetics. Search for new treatment blockbusters. Chronic disease, childhood disease, vaccines and orphan therapies. Rheumatoid and asthma. Antibiotics and multiple drug resistance problems. Search for powerful antiviral therapy. Future health funding and ageing populations. Contrast with emerging markets. Health economics: treatment access and justice issues. Pharmacogenomics and gene prophecy. Ethical issues in pharmaceuticals. HIV and AIDS.

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The Future of Health Care - Video

Futurist Topics - Health

Two great techno-revolutions will impact the future of health care: digital and genetic. The digital changes what we do -The genetic has the power to change who we are. Both together will transform every aspect of health services. Questions for a third millennium: How will people live and die? Will they die? The future of health care will not more of the same but basic human needs will be: physical, emotional, social and spiritual.

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The Future of Ageing - Video / Article

Futurist Topics - Health

Future of health care and the pharmaceutical industry.  News and videos of new kind of world - how scientists will slow down or stop ageing in humans, plus other health trends. Many other health-related resources and videos across this site. L ife expectancy, medical advances, pensions, retirement, lifestyles and government policy.

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