Future of Fund Management and Banks
Futurist Topics - Banking
Urgent ethical questions. Over the last decade I have lectured to thousands of fund managers from many different institutions including banks, responsible for hundreds of billions of actively managed investments, mainly entrusted to them by pension funds. The global economic crisis highlighted a number of fundamental problems within the industry, that had been there for many years, and remain unresolved. Issues such as over-charging, low performance, lack of confidence of fund managers in their own funds. Restoring trust has to be an urgent major priority. Without it, the industry as it is cannot survive. Wat ch keynote at Mercer client event.
Government Debt: Expect Tolerance of Higher Inflation as part of strategy to Reduce Huge Liabilities
Futurist Topics - Banking
While governments talk of their fear of deflation, pouring trillions of dollars into the global economy, there is another reason why governments may want to encourage inflation. High inflation wipes out government debt. For example, if future inflation stabilises at 5% above the interest rate payable to the bond owner, the value of the debt will halve over 15 years.
Zopa Loans - Boom in Peer to Peer Lending
Futurist Topics - Banking
How savers are earning up to 12%. Zopa is a peer-to-peer lending company based in London with a radical answer to traditional banks, with over 150,000 members, growing by 2,500 members a month. Zopa matches people with cash to lend with those who want to borrow. So how big could Zopa grow? Could Zopa become a significant threat to traditional banks? Risks to lenders?
Future Banking: Profitable Growth Again
Futurist Topics - Banking
Why banking will make big profits again - and when. What is the future of banking? Will banking be profitable again? Every day I am asked this question. Around 25% of my work over the last decade has been with some of the largest banks in the world, and they, together with global investors, are anxious about the future.
Deflation and Inflation – Winners and Losers
Futurist Topics - Banking
I have in my pocket a $10 trillion dollar bill – printed in Zimbabwe a few weeks ago, but when I was there, not enough to buy half a loaf of bread. Country hit by inflation running of 1 billion % a year. Zimbabwe experience puts global economic crisis into context. At a time of global fears about inflation (2007-8) and deflation (2009) it is good to look at the wider picture, why life will continue relatively unchanged for most people, why we are likely to see inflation become a major problem again, and why we are likely to see political instability in some nations, and even fall of governments.
How to lose $ millions - video on risk
Futurist Topics - Banking
How millions were lost in Icelandic bank accounts and lessons to learn about how to make money and how to avoid heavy losses. How to increase your wealth. Real rates of return on investments. Assessing risks in fund management and real estate investment. Exchange rate risks and how they impact international investment. Economy risks, political risks, industry risks - all need to be priced into decisions about where to put your money. Portfolio management. What economists think about global risks, banks, banking, insurance and other industry investments.
Future of Banking - Credit Crunch - Video
Futurist Topics - Banking
Future of banking after credit crunch, and global collapse of financial markets. Nationalisation, capital injection, debt swaps. What banking look like after crisis and global economic chaos. Future of retail banking, corporate banking, wholesale banking and investment banking. Expect further consolidation, staff losses, more transparency and cautious lending - for a while. Highly complex global finance will offer new opportunities for talented bankers. Regulators and risk managers will struggle to catch up.
Credit Crunch and Sub-Prime Crisis - Video
Futurist Topics - Banking
John Bird and John Fortune (the Long Johns) brilliantly describe how bankers and brokers created the sub-prime crisis which led to the global credit crunch. Satirical comedy with important insights. Irrational markets and strange investment decisions. How markets are driven by emotion rather than logic. Implications for collapse of confidence in banking and government The trouble is that it is easy to make intelligent people seem ridiculous with hindsight - question is what decisions are being made today which will seem as absurd in a few years time.
What next in the Sub-Prime Crisis? - Video
Futurist Topics - Banking
Why the world is set for more financial shocks - because so many financial products are complex, not just where mortgages are repackaged and sold on. Hedge funds and other investment groups have many other bets in the market which could destabilise national economies. The Credit Crunch is related mainly to bad loans which became hard to value when sold on to other financial institutions, made worse by falling house prices. Wider risk from major currency fluctuations, plus speculation in oil futures and other things.
Future of Banking and Financial Services
Futurist Topics - Banking
"Fund management risk - many retail funds sold by people who don't believe in them"
Articles, slides and videos on the future of retail, corporate, wholesale and investment banking, fund management, brokerage, institutional banking and the insurance industry by Patrick Dixon, ranked one of 20 most influential business thinkers alive today - Thinkers 50 2005.
Video of 2006 event for fund managers - many fund managers I talk to at events do not recommend their own retail funds to family or friends and are doubtful about future performance compared to simple tracker funds. Potential for major reputational risk.
Online Insurance - Opportunity or Risk?
Futurist Topics - Banking
"Future of life insurance and ageing"
People look for all kinds of insurance products online but are these insurance companies really offering good value? Where are the best insurance deals?
Motor insurance, house buildings insurance, house contents insurance, health insurance, holiday insurance, life insurance - all these should be easy to fix online with instant quotes, electronic insurance contracts, e-mail confirmation. It's getting better for people living in some countries but there's a long way to go.
The Future of Qatar - Rapid Growth
Futurist Topics - Banking
Qatar is one of the wealthiest nations of the world in terms of income per person, because the Qatar population is small (around 800,000) and the oil / natural gas resources of Qatar are huge. Oil provides around a third of Qatar's GDP and Qatar natural gas reserves are vast - around 5% of the entire world's total. The rest of the Qatar economy is supported by industries such as fertilizers, cement, banking, chemicals, iron and steel, and spin-offs from the petrochemical industry.
Read more about Qatar's geography, population, tourism and future.
Accounting Challenge from Web
Futurist Topics - Banking
"The brave new world of the 21st century, with its increasing dependence on new technology, will pose a major nightmare for auditors. Patrick Dixon, author of Futurewise - Six Faces of Global Change, says that smart cards using high-level encryption, inserted into PCs and mobile phones, all networked together, will make tracking money flows extremely difficult.
Two thirds world debt
Futurist Topics - Banking
Jubilee 2000 is an international debt forgiveness campaign, aiming to help emerging countries to become economically self-sufficient. Many countries have run up massive debts. Since these debts can only be paid through export earnings, the best way to measure the burden is by comparing export earnings with total debt. Examples (World Bank figures 1998):
- Somalia - total debt $2.6bn - as % of export earnings 3,671
- Sudan - total debt $16.9bn - as % of export earnings 2,131
- Rwanda - total debt $1bn - as % of export earnings 1,374
Debt is spiralling out of control in some countries. A look at the scale of the problem.
More Articles...
- The Death of Stock Exchanges - Time Magazine
- The Impact of New Technology on Corporate Banking
- Growth in hard times - Video 2002
- IT Innovation and Banking Compliance
- The Future of Corporate Real Estate
- End of "Old" Stock Exchanges
- Deflation - the real risks to global economy
- Web TV - ARCHIVE 1997
- EU Online Banking - ARCHIVE 1997
- Online Banking outside US / EU - ARCHIVE 2007
- US Online Banking - ARCHIVE 1997
- Online Banking Competitors - ARCHIVE 1997
- Online Threat to Banks - ARCHIVE 1997
- Growing demand for cyberbanking in EU
- Digital Meltdown of Financial Services - Video
- Merger fever in EU - ARCHIVE 1998
- Future of Banking - ARCHIVE 2002
- Web TV - future of banking and financial services
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