Table of Contents

Future of Banking

FUTUREWISE personal and corporate survival

The future of banking will not be more of the same ... … we need to be ready

2000 - 2005 will see major changes in financial services markets and competitors

“Gaining Critical Mass…” 1998 ,000 staff EUR 432bn 2005 ???,000 staff EUR ???bn

Retail, Private and Institutional Banking

Future Trends...

We say goodbye to each decade

“You’re stuck in a late 20th century time-warp”

Future Trends...

6 Faces of the Future

Past Banking Trends

Past Banking Trends

Past Banking Trends

Past Trends

Past Trends

Technology - Friend or Enemy ?

Technology = lower costs

Technology means lower margins

Global Network Bank Payment - Cash management - Trade services

Anywhere - Anytime - Any channel single point of entry - real-time information global consistent customized access / service

New Technology in ABN Amro - may mean only 6 month lead

Attackers and defenders (Foster)

Attackers / Defenders

E-commerce hard to measure

AOL Christmas 1998

Reasons people buy on net

How many of your clients are already online?

Future Trends...

Airline tickets - 1 million customers in first 12 months

MP3 - 3 million web music track downloads a day – most illegal CD copies….

Future Trends...

Cyber Tax Haven

Loosing control of your future Other people can damage image

Future Trends...

Future Trends...

First Direct

Egg totally overwhelmed

Future Trends...

Virtual Trading? - Virtual Exchange?

National Exchanges

Real time prices for free

Independent Advisers

New Information Services

Electronic Commerce

Don’t believe market research

More chips than People

Speech recognition already 95% accurate at 100 words per minute -

Telephone by 2010 ?

Mobile Phones - impact

Techno -Redundancy

The Network Society

Telecom merging ...

Military Grade Security

Identrus Verification

Bugs and Spying

Future Trends...

An injectable computer

Management @ speed of light

Life too short to spend in airports

15 million in America already work from home using networks

Video Conference

Eye to Eye Contact

PB client gets global advice

Travel and telephone / conferencing should be same budget - COMMUNICATION

What will be the effect on people ?

Relationships under pressure

Executive Reactions

Struggle for DynamicVision

Response of traditional banks has been uncertain

Opportunities

New e-mail tools

Summary

Fast - summary

Fast - challenges

Future Trends...

Contrasts

Mega-cities - new market

Rich City Life - “kickback” cost

Feminisation of Society (eg UK)

Ageing Population

Ageing Population

People want to live forever

HIV Out of Control

Urban - summary

Urban - challenges

Future Trends...

Future Trends...

Tribal conflicts

Language Identity

Threat of English

Global Culture Clash

Tribal Marketing

Global Culture Clash 8.75% stake in Banca di Roma 5/3/99

National Airline Crisis

Positive Tribalism = Values

Building a tribe

Tribal - summary

Tribal - challenges

Future Trends...

Global Management

Single buying decisions

Intel Microprocessor

Mazda MX - 5 car

Future Trends...

Future Trends...

Reaction against Globalisation

Globalisation - good or bad ?

Global Marketing Cable and Wireless

Thai Currency 1997

Indonesia Crisis

Beijing Hotels - Crisis

“Speculators should be shot”

Cost of Capital

Mobile Factory

Work Force left behind

Retraining

Global Citizens

Who is Us ?

How digital will we become? Virtual Work

Empire Style Tribalism

Virtual Companies

Virtual Networks

Asea Brown Boveri

ABB grows large and small

Zurich HQ Staff

Companies will be more Virtual

Introduced “Virtual Teamwork”

Intranet Explosion

Intranet Uses

Universal - summary

Universal - challenges

Future Trends...

Governments: Loss of Power

Death of Political Theory

Death of Political Theory

New Politics

Single Issues eg

Did chickens ever run around on these legs?

A single issue can wreck your business

c

The Genetic Revolution DNA Designer Life

The Genetic Revolution Biggest Food Issue for next Decade Designer Food

Mix and Match

Mix and Match

Why GM food issues will not quietly go away

Mixing GM and non-GM harvests was a big mistake

Cloning Human Embryos

Implant twin embryo in surrogate mother

Cull foetus or remove tissue at birth

Remove chromosomes from an egg

Adult cell against an egg

Spark of electricity

Future Trends...

Cyber-people Designed to Order

Big Questions

Future Trends...

Radical - summary

Radical - challenges

Future Trends...

Future Trends...

Deep Human Needs

Deep Human Needs

The search for Experience

Problem of Motivation

Building a Better World

Building a Better World

Building a Better World

Beliefs

Spirituality

Islam

Christianity

Spirituality

Global Morality ?

Code of Conduct

Ethical - summary

Ethical - challenges

Life in the Third Millennium

Future Trends...

The greatest challenge to management in the next decade will be to change fast enough to keep pace with new technology and new values Either we take hold of the future or the future will take hold of us

Future Trends...

With thanks to Presentation Graphics

Home Page: http://www.globalchange.com

Other information:
Keynote speech on on global leadership trends for ABN AMRO - copyright c Dr Patrick Dixon 1999.

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