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Trends Analysis by Dr Patrick Dixon Futurist

The Future of Department Stores

Future of Retailing and Retail Industy

Click here to start

Table of Contents

Future Trends...

The Future of Department Stores

The future will not be more of the same We need to be ready

Constant values in a changing world Style - Quality - Service - Integrity “Great place to shop, work, invest”

2000 - 2005 will see major changes in markets and competitors

Virtual Organisations will be at the centre of those changes Only the most efficient will survive

More than 75% of clothing will be sold by less than 12 retailers

Changes in Retailing

Changes in Manufacturing

Fashion and retailing revolution

After mergers and integration - changing up a gear - fresh vision

Defining the new boundaries eg Mall or Franchise / On-line store

Future Trends...

A whole new world

Attackers and defenders (Foster)

Attackers / Defenders

Attackers / Defenders

We say goodbye to each decade

Honouring roots and traditions

“Stuck in the 19th century”

“You’re stuck in a late 20th century time-warp”

Future Trends...

Future Trends...

Future Trends...

6 Faces of the Future

Past Trends

Past Trends

Past Trends

Impact of new technology

Technology means lower costs

Technology means job losses

Technology means lower margins

Technology can easily be copied - 6 months - very short term advantage

Huge investment needed

Pressure to develop limited range of core brand products

E-commerce hard to measure

AOL Christmas 1998

WorldPay - actual on-line money flow in purchases

66% of UK wants home shopping

Reasons people buy on net

Cyber Tax Haven

My son is 9 years old

How many CDs would he have to sell on his web page to be very HAPPY?

Just one a year - wait tell he tells all his friends!

“Do we HAVE to go shopping ?”

“I’ll do it on the net !”

“Shopping on the net is FUN”

MP3 - 3 million web music track downloads a day – most illegal CD copies….

Future Trends...

Airline tickets - 1 million customers in first 12 months

In London - shopping in Manhattan

Example of financial services industry

Future Trends...

Future Trends...

Egg totally overwhelmed

Electronic Commerce

Future Trends...

Future Trends...

1 business year = 7 net years -

Good news: making decisions at 2x normal Bad news: every step forward = 3 steps back

1 business year = 7 net years - Move at 10x normal speed to catch up!

Loosing control of your future Other people can damage image

Don’t believe market research

Technovision – over the horizon

More chips than People

Speech recognition already 95% accurate at 100 words per minute -

Telephone Revolution

Mobile Phones - impact

Techno -Redundancy

The Network Society

Telecom merging ...

Future Trends...

Future Trends...

Future Trends...

Future Trends...

BT - Office on your body Computer: clothing accessory

An injectable computer

Intelligent Clothes 2000-1

Saks TV - 20,000 web stations

Executives will be totally networked

… plus stores, customers and associates

… more than interchangeable charge cards - total integration + extra services eg customer databases, loans, pensions

80% of management control for 20% of cost

More Travel - Less shopping

Life too short to spend in airports

Travel can damage your business ...

There are other ways to work

What did your competitors get up to while you were away?

15 million in America already work from home using networks

Video Conference

Eye to Eye Contact

Video Link

Future Trends...

Travel and telephone / conferencing should be same budget - COMMUNICATION

Travel and telephone / conferencing should be same budget - COMMUNICATION

Travel and telephone / conferencing should be same budget - COMMUNICATION

Brain to Brain

Brain to Brain Business @ the speed of thought

Future Management Thought exchange @ the speed of light

What will be the effect on people ?

Fast - challenges

Future Trends...

World Population

feminization of Society

Ageing Population - Loyalty and sense of family

Boom in luxury clothing

Ageing Population - Loyalty and sense of family

Urban - challenges

Future Trends...

Future Trends...

Future Trends...

Tribal conflicts

Millions of Refugees

UN Peacekeeping - billions of dollars

Global Culture Clash

Tribal Marketing

Tribal Marketing

Positive Tribalism

Tribal - challenges

Future Trends...

Future Trends...

Global Management

Mazda MX - 5 car

Intel Microprocessor

Future Trends...

Future Trends...

The Plane Cockpit Controls

e-business - problems

Mobile Clothes Factory

Thai Currency 1997

“Speculators should be shot”

Survey of Multinationals 1997

Empire Style Tribalism

Virtual Companies

Asea Brown Boveri

Zurich HQ Staff

Virtual Networks

Intranet Explosion

Intranet Uses

Universal - challenges

Future Trends...

Death of Political Theory

New Politics

Single Issues eg

A single issue can wreck your business

D'J

Radical - challenges

Future Trends...

The more virtual we are, the more relationships are important

Deep Human Needs

The search for experience

Problem of Motivation

Building a Better World

Building a Better World

Beliefs

Spirituality

Islam

Christianity

Code of Conduct

Ethical - challenges

Life in the Third Millennium

Future Trends...

The greatest challenge to management in the next decade will be to move fast enough to keep pace with speed of change Either we take hold of the future or the future will take hold of us

Turning the cube...

Future Trends...

With thanks to Presentation Graphics

Home Page: http://www.globalchange.com/search.htm

Other information:
by Dr Patrick Dixon, Fellow, Chairman Global Change Ltd - for Saks Inc. The future of department stores including Saks 5th Avenue, shopping malls, retailing of clothes for men and women, fashion outlets, factory outlets and chains. Designer labels, jewelry, perfume, hosiery, accessories. Retail industry trends. Online catalogues trading, sales and discounts. Markup, profit margin, margins and seasonal sales. Staff training, recruitment, retention and motivation, shop windows and displays, advertising and brands, style, consumer preferences, choices and segmentation. Target groups, premium customers, high net worth individuals, cross-selling and cross-selling strong brands. Textiles and clothing industry. Fabrics, designer labels, couture, style.

Related issues: search our 26,414 pages for more...