The Future of Telecom

Table of Contents

Future Trends...

Future Trends...

Fusion of Content and Carrier

Carrying the Virtual World

Future telecom traffic not more of the same ...… we need to be ready

Eat or be Eaten !Huge Economies of Scale

Consumers will always change faster than you

Don’t believe market research

Vision – Changes People“Once you have seen something you can never un-see it”

Attackers and defenders (Foster)

Attackers / Defenders

Attackers / Defenders

Attackers / Defenders

The Future: Video with Everything

Bandwidth and Real People

1. Does technology help profits?

Technology = lower costs

Technology = job losses

Technology means lower margins

New Technology - may mean only 6 month lead – good or bad news

Good news: making decisions at 2x normalBad news: every step forward = 3 steps back

1 business year = 7 net years -Move at 10x normal speed to catch up

2. The truth about new techno-markets a) Retail

My son Paul

“Do we HAVE to go shopping ?”

“I’ll do it on the net!”

Selling on the net is FUN

Future Trends...

Eating your own business

2. The truth about new techno-markets and  b) Business to Business

Future Trends...

Future Trends...

CovisintFord - General Motors – DaimlerChrysler – Renault / Nissan

3. Work in a virtual world

Computers change very slowly…. Especially their old-tech screens

….Compared to mobile phones

Lesson of History (and free net)

Free Bandwidth – Strange Use

Free global phone

Short messages

Direct Marketing on Digital TV

Digital TV changes everything

The Truth about Bandwidth

The Truth about Bandwidth

What we really want

The Future is Video

Video v E-mail

The End of Internet

Telecom will merge fully

Future Trends...

An injectable computer

Management @ speed of light

Brain to Brain

Future ManagementThought exchange @ the speed of light

What is theoretical upper limit to human bandwidth use ?

Brain to BrainShared emotion @ the speed of light

What will be the effect on people ?

Work / Home – integrationWe need to rethink how we organise people and where they work

Life too short to spend in airports $200,000 a year – 6 weeks at 33,500ft

40 million in America already work from home using networks

In a global operation across 193 countries what is the point of going to work?

Individual and organizational flexibilityUp to ten participants from ten locations – life sizeAlso home cinema / entertainment centre – and household control / Web Cams

Use technology to “get a life”

Client gets global advice

Travel and telephone / conferencing should be same budget - COMMUNICATION

Carrying the Virtual World

The more virtual we are, the more relationships are important –

Deep Human Needs

The search for experience

Problem of MotivationCost of staff turnover

Surviving Rapid Change

Building a Better World

The greatest challenge in the next decade will be to change fast enough to keep pace with new technology – and new valuesEither we take hold of the future or the future will take hold of us

Slides:

Home Page: http://www.globalchange.com/search.htm

Other information:
Keynote presentation by Dr Patrick Dixon, Chairman Global Change Ltd, September 2000 - at Carriers World conference. Demand for bandwidth. Future use of bandwidth for voice, fax, e-mail, multimedia messaging, video, videoconference, music, TV, films, media. Global carriers and capacity. Over-capacity and falling demand - reality or fear? Truth about 2.5G and 3G mobile telephony. Wireless networks and data transmission. Europe, Africa, Asia, Latin America, United States, Canada, Middle East. Profitability and killer applications. Future lifestyles and consumer expectations. Mobile working and teleworking. The future of work. Virtual teams and virtual organisations.

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