Looking Towards the Future of the Pharmaceutical Industry

FUTUREWISE
How will people live and die?
Who will win and lose in Pharma Industry ?

FUTUREWISE
Intuition + Analysis
You have the power to change lives

Scenario Development
There are many Futures

 The future of health – urgent






 Time is running out for the sick

Take hold of your F U T U R  E

Slide 7

   When Speed Hits Hard

 Unstable Economic Environment

  Deflation: 40% of US goods and Services

The world can change far faster than  you can get approval for research – let alone drug to market

Drug Challenges

A news story can destroy a blockbuster in a day  - and a Pharma business in a week ?

Don’t believe market research

 Technology Timeline Context

 The New Medicine

     Health Care Revolution

Digital Doctors
robots decide future threrapy
Does this child have meningitis?

Phamacogenetics – Major Impact in Future
                    DNA
             Designer Life

The digital revolution changes what we do
The genetic revolution changes who we are

1 million mutants made in UK in 2 years – transgenic animals

   Strange New Creations

Mix and Match

 Rabbit fur genes added to cotton

Safe to Eat ?

Low fat humanised pigs

      Hype and Anti-Hype
Bill Gates v Jose Cibelli
Microsoft v Advanced Cell Technology

Digital Hype and Biotech Hope

  Biotech = total life control

Timeline
Faster
Analysis

Genes into cells means potential pharmaceutical factory inside body

Getting New Genes Into Cells

Drug Factory inside Human Body – No more daily medicines -  Just one “priming” injection of human viruses

Grow New Teeth

DIY skin cells à nerve cells

 Replacement Tissues and Organs

Individual Variation – Side Effects and Action

Genetic Prophecy – Are We Ready?

Slide 38

             Possibilities

New Medicine – Lifestyle Issues

  Ageing Hair Follicles
Hair in all the wrong places

Permanent Hair Colour

   2003 – Year of Clone

“Therapeutic” Human Cloning

   We Still Know Very Little

Will biotech concerns grow or fade?

How many human genes does a monkey have to have to win human rights?

Slide 48

 Mega-cities - Mega-markets

Slide 50

        Contrasts

Rich City Life - “kickback” cost

Slide 53

Ageing and Wealthy

 Do you accept longevity estimates?

  Can we stop ageing ?
Including Alzheimers etc


Will
people
die?

Live to 160 years old?

Health messages start to backfire

New Illnesses….  Viral Plague

Slide 61

Tribal conflicts

Europe will be dominated by conflict between local identity and regional power

What Could Europe Look Like ?

  Tribal Marketing
All Great Drugs Create Tribes

Positive Tribalism – GSK impact

Slide 67

Slide 68

Pharmaceutical marketing

Impact on pharmaceutical companies of mergers ? 
  Eg Pfizer / Pharmacia $60bn deal

"The digital revolution created the..."

Slide 72

Indonesia Crisis

“Speculators should be shot”

Recent events are a boost to virtual teams / organisations

Life too short to spend in airports
$200,000 a year – 6 weeks at 33,500ft

Slide 77

Death of Political Theory

New Politics à Unstable Policies

Single Issues

Every single issue becomes a regulation

How did this turkey live and die?

Did chickens ever run around on these legs?

Slide 84

Expect questions about whether we need drug companies at all

Expect “better” ways to be proposed to develop new treatments for the benefit of humanity as a whole

Expect new kinds of pharmaceutical foundations which operate effectively as not-for-profit

Slide 86

"Huge,"

Deep Human Needs

      New trend – get a life

Look at what people do for nothing


Corporate  Values

What is the Purpose of GSK ?

Companies talk about

Individuals talk about

   “Building a Better World”

              The ultimate slogan

 Take Hold of Your Future

Slides:

globalchange.com/ppt/gsk