BBC Future
One of the world’s greatest
and most noble institutions – but challenges ahead
Rapid shifts in wireless
technology, programme storage, competition, audience behaviour and personal
values will force changes in BBC programming, production patterns, content
distribution, advertising policy and levels of public funding
BBC’s “unique” corporate
values will be strongest defence against step-by-step cuts and privatisation,
helping the BBC win the war for talent, the continued affection and attention
of the nation, and respect from the wider world
But these values need to be sold well
"F ast"
Slide 6
Early Warning Radar +
Roadmap
Personal and corporate survival
20% of risks = 80% of impact
Some things change faster
than commissioning editors or governors can make decisions
2 minute challenge: Invent
the worst news headline you can think of – about the
BBC
What happened
to trust ?
A Fundamental Question for
BBC Survival
If the BBC didn’t exist –
would Britain launch today a new, public service broadcasting empire, funded by
“taxing” all TV owners £116 pa even if they never watch channels and are
destitute?
Winners and Losers in future
Ratings War - Repositioning
Future programme ratings
will be unstable
Don’t believe market research
“Opinion Formers” BBC
Survey
Top 6 roles of public sector broadcaster
“Six Purposes” may not
protect BBC from systematic attack /cuts
The Future
is two-way Video
Video call: “Which is the
best club tonight?”
Impact of videophones on
news gathering and live community programming:
Instant video of breaking news
Slide 21
Demographic shifts and other
social trends will transform entertainment, comedy, drama story-lines,
production and education / documentaries.
The future is about emotion
How will they behave?
Will we see deserted play areas?
… while children prefer to
play in virtual reality worlds instead?
Power of a good book
Books will continue to have huge emotional power in a digital world
No sign that young people
are replacing traditional social interaction with virtual channels
Web Dating – Search for Love
CDs and DVDs will not
survive in a broadband world where all music, TV and video is available online
for free
Slide 31
Virtual Social Contact is
Powerful
Emotional Power of Web Chat
Emotional Power of SMS
Ageing Audiences
“Auntie Beeb” culture has
had a sex change and is getting older
Slide 37
Tribalism conflicts
Global instability and new
terror movements could result from unsustainable contrasts between rich and
poor nations
Pressures on BBC World will
grow for cultural compromise and self-censorship
Positive Tribalism = Values
Programme Schedules will
still be important in “TV-on-demand” tribal Britain
For live “tribal” broadcasts – national experiences eg Proms or big Christmas
movies - everything else can be canned
Live, interactive TV, radio
and web transmission will develop greater premium value and democratic power in
an increasingly virtual world
Instant national feedback
will have a huge (and often traumatic) impact on actors, show hosts, producers,
studio audiences, providers and government
Mid-show resignation will not be uncommon
Slide 45
Impact of large media mergers
"The digital revolution
created the..."
BBC online and BBC World
will face growing pressure for cost-cuts – need new strategies to protect
BBC Website Will Face Threat
Needs new rationale to defend huge size / impact
Slide 50
Death of Political Theory
New Shape of Politics
Single Issues
Every single issue becomes a
regulation
How did this turkey live and
die?
Did chickens ever run around
on these legs?
"Let every Kentucky
Fried Chicken..."
We will need a different
kind of relationship of BBC to government
BBC news and current affairs
will be forced to adopt new strategies to stabilise falling audiences over the
next decade
Political Bias is
Inevitable
Unless you rise above those playing games
BBC News and Current Affairs
Future Challenge to Nature of Reporting
The Problem of Interviews
The Truth about Westminster
"Most people believe
that elections..."
The BBC has a Unique
Opportunity
Slide 66
Slide 67
Positive Human Needs in 2030
will be the same
"Huge,"
Greg Dyke – A Better Place
New trend – get a life
"6 out of 10 Americans..."
1 million protesting about
Iraq War
Companies talk about
Individuals talk about…
The ultimate slogan
Connect with all the
passions people have and they will follow you and your programming to the ends
of the earth, be devoted to your services, be your greatest advocates– and what
is more, be willing to work for you or with you for next to nothing
"Fast / Urban /
Universal"
Slides:
www.globalchange.com/ppt/bbc