Future Reform of State-Owned Enterprises in emerging markets

Futurist Keynote - Articles and Videos - Emerging Markets, BRICS, High Growth Economies

One of the greatest challenges facing emerging markets like China and Vietnam is what to do about State-Owned Enterprises, or nationally owned industries.  There are 145,000 of them in China alone. They generate 35% of China’s GDP and 43% of profits. Many of them survive only with large government subsidies, which distort national markets. They may enjoy lower tax rates than privately owned competitors. They often rely on huge bank loans at preferential rates of interest, crowding out other borrowers, discouraging investment and adding to government liabilities. So what should be done?

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Vietnam - faster growth than some other parts of Asia

Futurist Keynote - Articles and Videos - Emerging Markets, BRICS, High Growth Economies

Labour costs are only half that in China, for same job in same kind of factory.  But that only makes sense if productivity is half, which is unlikely, especially in any newly built manufacturing base.
Expect therefore that the investments will continue – although it may be a challenge to consistently top more than $10bn a year, as has been the case recently, because there are even cheaper destinations such as Myanmar that are opening up.Vietnam – time to catch up with rest of Asia.

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Growth of Asia Exports – Vietnam Leads Emerging Markets

Futurist Keynote - Articles and Videos - Emerging Markets, BRICS, High Growth Economies

While many people talk a lot about the massive success of China, Indonesia, Phillipines and Asia, in exporting to developed nations, the truth is more complex and somewhat surprising.

A growing proportion of this export growth is to other emerging nations rather than to the developed world. As the graph shows, despite the huge economic downturn in developed nations, and rapid slowing of growth across Asia, Vietnam has outshone its neighbours in 2011 and 2012, with every prospect of continuing to do so. In 2011, exports from Vietnam increased by over 34%, and 24% in 2012.   There are a number of reasons for this.

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Why migration to cities is so vital to China - economic growth

Futurist Keynote - Articles and Videos - Emerging Markets, BRICS, High Growth Economies

The Chinese government is planning for up to 300 million people to move to cities in the next decade.  This huge migration will place immense strain on infrastructure and housing, as well as on job creation.  These people are moving for a better life, in hope of higher incomes and opportunity.  The risk is social unrest if economic development fails to keep pace with expectations.Why mass migration to cities will continue in China for 40 years.

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Future of ASEAN - Asian equivalent of EU - Expect big job changes in 2015

Futurist Keynote - Articles and Videos - Emerging Markets, BRICS, High Growth Economies

600 million people, 8.8% of the world's population, live in nations which are part of the ASEAN community. If ASEAN were a single nation, it would rank be the 9th largest economy in the world. A key part of ASEAN 2015 is a proposal that people with skills should be able to move freely from one nation to another without need for work permits or special visas. This is a huge step which could have a huge impact on nations losing or gaining large numbers of skilled workers. Take the UK, which expected around 5,000 new migrant workers to enter the country each year following 10 new countries joining the EU.  The reality was that over a million people arrived from Poland alone during the first three years.

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How street traders drive economic growth in emerging markets

Futurist Keynote - Articles and Videos - Emerging Markets, BRICS, High Growth Economies

It is easy for governments in emerging nations to focus policy on helping or attracting big business, but small family-owned businesses are usually the greatest creator of new jobs, partly because there are so many of them. If a million businesses with an average of 10 employees, each manage to employ an average of just one extra person each, that’s a million new jobs.  But most of these businesses will have started out informally and very small.  Lessons from informal street-traders in India and Vietnam.

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Future of Vietnam - economy, banking, manufacturing, digital, green tech

Futurist Keynote - Articles and Videos - Emerging Markets, BRICS, High Growth Economies

Vietnam's future will be driven by key trends such as economy, technology, demographics, mobile digital and retail banking. One in four of the population of Vietnam is under 14, median age of only 27, with a literacy rate of 94%. Labour costs in many parts of the country are only half those of China and Thailand. Wage inflation in China’s coastal cities is averaging around 12% a year, which will encourage more factories to relocate. Chinese wage inflation for most experienced managers can be as much as 100% a year. Vietnam will therefore continue to attract major manufacturing investment, and has a great future.

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Future of Singapore as hub for Asia's emerging markets - Future of Asia and Decline of Europe / America

Futurist Keynote - Articles and Videos - Emerging Markets, BRICS, High Growth Economies

Singapore along with the rest of the region has continued to enjoy strong economic growth, despite the obsession of Europe and America with a so-called global economic meltdown. Singapore is a natural hub for the region. It boasts the biggest and busiest port in the world, a huge airport, highly skilled workers, superb infrastructure and world-beating digital networks. Singapore business district contains regional headquarters of many of the largest multinationals, with specialty areas in banking, IT, telecom and international trade.

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1 billion new city dwellers - new markets, property, commodities, marketing

Futurist Keynote - Articles and Videos - Emerging Markets, BRICS, High Growth Economies

Rapid growth of megacities -- impact on commodity prices, infrastructure building projects, multinational investment and real estate development. Impact on national economy.

Demographic pressures ageing population and pressure on housing, future real estate trends and demand for different kinds of property. Urbanisation data in China, Africa, India and other parts of the world - economic growth.

Demographic graphs and tables for Australia showing...

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