Table of Contents
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Heathrow Business Lounge
You can have the greatest strategy in the world but it could just be taking you faster in the wrong direction Turn risk into opportunity
Early Warning Radar + Roadmap
20% of risks = 80% of impact
Are we taking enough risks?
Future of Business and Personal Life
Take hold of your Future
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The world can change far faster than most boards can make decisions ? scenario plans
How safe do you want to be?
Even the best run businesses….
When Speed Hits Hard
A news story can destroy a corporation in a day
Foundations for Future
Everything joined up to everyone
24 hour / 365 day video link at zero cost
24 hour / 365 day video link at zero cost
Community of Leaders in 10 nations: World Bank
Brain to Brain Shared data or emotion @ the speed of light
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RISK: Global instability from unsustainable contrasts between rich and poor nations Opportunity: Mega-markets and new customer segments
Mega-cities - Mega-markets
40,000 more people find hope and prosperity – microbanking
Rich City Life - “kickback” cost
RISK: Drug addiction in workplace affects safety and decision-making OPPORTUNITY: Finding ways to help people who are affected by many social challenges
Aging Population
RISK: People Live Longer – pressure on pensions / care OPPORTUNITY: Growing market for products and services for older people
Can we stop Aging ? Including Alzheimers etc
The Genetic Revolution DNA Designer Life The digital revolution changes what we do The genetic revolution changes who we are
Biotech = total life control
Mix and Match
Grow New Teeth – what about new joints and wound healing?
Aging Hair Follicles Hair in all the wrong places
Permanent Hair Colour
Adult Stem Cell Research
Live to 160 years old?
Fundamental Moral Issues
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Tribal conflicts
RISK: EU friction with tribal pressures OPPORTUNITY: Relocation of production to low cost areas within EU / access to new markets
Positive Tribalism = Values
Europe will be dominated by conflict between local identity and regional power
What Could Europe Look Like ?
Tribal Marketing All Great Brands Create Tribes
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Single buying decisions
RISK: Hostile bid or problems following a merger or acquisition OPPORTUNITIES: New waves of consolidation in global petrochemical markets
Impact of mergers ?
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RISK: War against terror creates new global insecurity OPPORTUNITY: New levels of international cooperation open up major investment opportunities
The global village has become a lawless global city
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RISK: Reaction against globalisation targets corporation OPPORTUNITY: Develop image of corporate responsibility and care
“Speculators should be shot”
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RISK: Single issue hits media OPPORTUNITY: Single issue hits a competitor, and positions your corporation strongly to make an immediate response
Death of Political Theory
New Politics
Single Issues
Every single issue becomes a regulation
How did this turkey live and die?
Did chickens ever run around on these legs?
Let every Kentucky Fried Chicken be a happy chicken!
Global Warming
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RISK: Values change in unexpected ways OPPORTUNITY: Connect with all the passions people (now) have and they will follow you to the ends of the earth, buy your products and services with pride and work for you for next to nothing
Positive Human Needs in 2030 will be the same
,
What was bad is becoming good and what was good is becoming suspect Ways of doing things that have worked for decades are looking old fashioned or immoral while other practices that raised questions are becoming totally acceptable
Great deeds are usually wrought at great risks Herodotus (484 BC - 430 BC)
New trend – get a life
Courageous risks are life giving, they help you grow, make you brave and better than you think you are. Joan L. Curcio US writer
Look at what people do for nothing
RISK: In pursuing only shareholder value, loose the plot and damage the business OPPORTUNITY: Drive the business on a broader mission, that motivates, inspires and wins consumer as well as community approval
Companies talk about
Individuals talk about…
More to Life than Life
“Building a Better World” The ultimate slogan
How do you see the future ?
To win without risk is to triumph without glory.
The policy of being too cautious is the greatest risk of all.
Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.
Risk - If one has to jump a stream and knows how wide it is, he will not jump. If he doesn't know how wide it is, he'll jump and six times out of ten he'll make it.
Edward George Earle Lytton Bulwer-Lytton (1803-1873) Ambition has no risk.
Children are curious and are risk takers. They have lots of courage. They venture out into a world that is immense and dangerous. A child initially trusts life and the processes of life. John Bradshaw (1933 - ____) US philosopher, lecturer, author In The Ultimate Success Quotations Library, 1997.
Corporate risk takers are very much like entrepreneurs. They take personal risks to make new ideas happen. Gifford Pinchot, III ( - ____) US management consultant, author, speaker Intrapreneuring," Harper & Row 85
Risk
Every good thing in the world stands on the razor-edge of danger. Thornton Wilder (1897 - 1975) US playwright, novelist Wriston's 'Risk and Other Four-Letter Words'
Hope is a risk that must be run. Georges Bernanos (1888 - 1948) French novelist, polemical writer In "Wisdom of the Ages at Your Fingertips," MCR software, 1995.
Persuading and leaders
If you are not willing to risk the unusual, you will have to settle for the ordinary. Jim Rohn ( - ____) US success author In The Ultimate Success Quotations Library, 1997.
If you take no risks, you will suffer no defeats. But if you take no risks, you win no victories. Richard Nixon (1913 - 1994) US president (37th), author In "US News & World Report," 30 Mar. 1987.
Our whole way of life today is dedicated to the removal of risk. Cradle to grave we are supported, insulated, and isolated from the risks of life -- and if we fall, our government stands ready with Bandaids of every size. Shirley Temple Black (1928 - ____) US actress, diplomat Speech, Kiwanis International Convention, Texas, Jun 1967; in "The Sinking of the Lollipop," by Rodney G. Minott, 1968.
Drug company
Food Company
Bank
Energy company
Entrepreneurs are risk takers, willing to roll the dice with their money or reputations on the line in support of an idea or enterprise. They willingly assume responsibility for the success or failure of a venture and are answerable for all its facets. Victor Kiam (1926 - 2001) US businessman Going For It!,1986
Global trading company
Managing Risk
high level, risks can be categorised as follows:
Strategic/corporate
Risk analysis
Look at what is at risk and why
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Insuring against the future
Commodity price fluctuations
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