FUTUREWISE
personal and corporate survival in banking and financial services

Table of Contents

Future Trends...

FUTUREWISEpersonal and corporate survival

Managing Risk

The future will not be more of the same ...… we need to be ready

Eat or be Eaten !Living until the next merger or joint action

“Stuck in the 19th century”

“That’s SO last century”“You’re stuck in a late 20th century time-warp”

Don’t believe market research

Vision – Changes People“Once you have seen something you can never un-see it”

F U T U R E

Future Trends...

World Trends

New Ways to Manage Wealth

Attackers and defenders (Foster)

Attackers / Defenders

Attackers / Defenders

“I will survive!”

Virtual Trading? - Virtual Exchange?

Technology Issues

1. Does technology help profits?

Technology = lower costs

Technology = job losses

Technology means lower margins

New Technology - may mean only 6 month lead – good or bad news

Good news: making decisions at 2x normalBad news: every step forward = 3 steps back

1 business year = 7 net years -Move at 10x normal speed to catch up

New technology can damage image

2. The truth about new techno-markets a) Retail

Reasons people buy on net

Speed: MP3 overtakes sex on net - 4 million web music track downloads a day – most illegal CD copies….

Cyber Tax Haven

Zero Business Chain

Life After Egg ?

My son is 10 years old

“Do we HAVE to go shopping ?”

“I’ll do it on the net!”

“Selling on the net is FUN”

Future Trends...

2. The truth about new techno-markets b) Business to Business

Future Trends...

Future Trends...

Ford and General Motors

3. Work in a virtual world

Information Overload?Higher risk of serious mistakes

Information UnderloadValue locked inside his head

Speech recognition already 98% accurate at 140 words per minute -

Computers change very slowly….

….Compared to mobile phones

Techno -Redundancy

The End of Internet

Telecom will merge fully

Future Trends...

BT - Office moves from buildings to human bodies

An injectable computer

Management @ speed of light

Brain to Brain

Future ManagementThought exchange @ the speed of light

Brain to BrainShared emotion @ the speed of light

What will be the effect on people ?

Work / Home – integrationWe need to rethink how we organise people and where they work

Happy homes = productive people

Life too short to spend in airports $200,000 a year – 6 weeks at 33,500ft

15 million in America already work from home using networks

In a global operation across 25 countries what is the point of going to work?

Up to ten participants from ten locations – life size around desk

Use technology to “get a life”

Client gets global advice

Travel and telephone / conferencing should be same budget - COMMUNICATION

Fast - Challenges

Future Trends...

Mega-cities - Mega-markets

Contrasts

Rich City Life - “kickback” cost

feminization of Society (eg UK)

Ageing Population

Ageing Population

Urban - Challenges

Future Trends...

Future Trends...

Tribal conflicts

Millions of Refugees

Global Values Clash

Tribal Marketing Global brands yet local

Positive Tribalism = Values

Tribal - challenges

Future Trends...

Future Trends...

Global Management and Global Risk

Mazda MX - 5 car

Virtual Networks / Federative Organisations

Empire Style Tribalism

Virtual Companies

Introduced “Virtual Teamwork”

The Plane Cockpit Controls

Universal - challenges

Future Trends...

Death of Political Theory

New Politics

Single Issues eg

How did this turkey live and die?

Did chickens ever run around on these legs?

c

The Genetic RevolutionDNADesigner Life

Mix and Match

Mix and Match

Cloning Human Embryos

Reaction against human clones will include GM food and many other biotech products

First remove nucleus (genes) from the egg

Adult cell against an egg

Spark of electricity

Future Trends...

Future Trends...

Radical - challenges

Future Trends...

“Competent, decisive employees… ………willing to take responsibility”

The more virtual we are, the more relationships are important – High tech, High touch

Deep Human Needs

The search for experience

Problem of MotivationCost of staff turnover

Surviving Rapid Change

Building a Better World

Beliefs

Spirituality

Islam

Christianity

Highest Values of All

Ethical - challenges

Life in the Third Millennium

Future Trends...

Turning the cube...

The greatest challenge to management in the next decade will be to change fast enough to keep pace with new technology and new valuesEither we take hold of the future or the future will take hold of us

Future Trends...

Future Trends...

Home Page: http://www.globalchange.com/search.htm

Other information:
by Dr Patrick Dixon

Here are some issues people are talking about on the net relating to the future of banking and financial services: (Search our own 26,414 pages for more on many of these topics).