Table of Contents
Future Trends...
Take hold of the future - or the future will take hold of you
2000 - 2005 will see major changes in your regulatory world - markets, competitors, politics
Biomed / Health Industry: Eat or be Eaten Living until the next merger or joint action
The behaviour of regulatory authorities - not be more of the same … we need to be ready
Future Trends...
The future of health - not more of the same ... … but basic human needs will be
FUTUREWISE How will people live and die?
FUTUREWISE Will people die?
Health messages start to backfire
The New Medicine
Health Care will be Political
Regulations mean money for Lawyers
“Stuck in the 19th century”
“That’s SO last century” “You’re stuck in a late 20th century time-warp”
Don’t believe market research
Vision – Changes People “Once you have seen something you can never un-see it”
F U T U R E
Future Trends...
World Trends
Future Regulations
Future Trends...
Global Law
Attackers and defenders (Foster)
Attackers / Defenders
Attackers / Defenders
Technology and Health
1. Why technology can be bad for people and profits
Huge rise in techno-medicine costs Better technology = greater resource conflicts
Even shorter hospital stays
Technology = lower management costs
Technology = job losses
Technology means lower margins
New Technology - may mean only 6 month lead – good or bad news
Good news: making decisions at 2x normal Bad news: every step forward = 3 steps back
1 business year = 7 net years - Move at 10x normal speed to catch up
2. The truth about the new economy a) Retail
Reasons people buy medication on net
Cyber Tax Haven
Zero Health Supply Chain
On-line Medical Care
Future Trends...
2. The truth about the new economy b) Business to Business
Future Trends...
Future Trends...
Rocksalt for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania
Ford and General Motors
Health Care Revolution
3. Work in a virtual world
BT - on-line surgery
Information Overload? Higher risk of serious mistakes
Information Underload Value locked inside his head
Speech recognition already 98% accurate at 140 words per minute -
Computers change very slowly….
….Compared to mobile phones
Short messages
Techno -Redundancy
The End of Internet
Telecom will merge fully
Future Trends...
BT - Office moves from buildings to human bodies
An injectable computer
Management @ speed of light
Brain to Brain
Future Management Thought exchange @ the speed of light
Brain to Brain Shared emotion @ the speed of light
Brain to Body - paraplegia Chip to Brain – sight / sound
Digital Doctors Robots decide: Does this child have meningitis?
What will be the effect on people ?
Work / Home – integration Need to rethink how we organise people, where they work, need care
Happy homes = productive people
Life too short to spend in airports $200,000 a year – 6 weeks at 33,500ft
15 million in America already work from home using networks
In a global operation across 25 countries what is the point of going to work?
Up to ten participants from ten locations – life size around desk
Use technology to “get a life”
Client gets global advice
Travel and telephone / conferencing should be same budget - COMMUNICATION
Fast - Challenges
Future Trends...
Mega-cities - Mega-markets
Contrasts
Rich City Life - “kickback” cost
People want to live forever
People want to live forever
Food can kill - Obesity
Anti-fat foods
Ageing Population
feminization of Society (eg UK)
Urban - Challenges
Future Trends...
Future Trends...
Tribal conflicts
Future of Regions ?
Millions of Refugees
Global Values Clash
Tribal Marketing Global / national brands yet local
Positive Tribalism = Values
Tribal - challenges
Future Trends...
Future Trends...
Health Care products increasingly globalised
Single buying decisions
Empire Style Tribalism
Virtual Companies
Virtual Networks to beat laws
Introduced “Virtual Teamwork”
Indonesia Crisis and reaction to globalisation
“Speculators should be shot”
Universal - summary
Universal - challenges
Future Trends...
Death of Political Theory
New Politics
Single Issues
How did this turkey live and die?
Did chickens ever run around on these legs?
Worries about Electromagnetic Radiation
Care for poor as well as wealthy
Every single issue becomes a regulation
H˙ű ˙ű
The Genetic Revolution DNA Designer Life The digital revolution changes what we do The genetic revolution changes who we are
Mix and Match
Mix and Match
Genetics and Medicine
Cloning Human Embryos
Reaction against human clones will include GM food and many other biotech products
First remove nucleus (genes) from the egg
Adult cell against an egg
Spark of electricity
Future Trends...
Legal Issues in Genetics
Legal Issues in Genetics
Future Trends...
Radical - summary
Radical - challenges
Future Trends...
The more virtual we are, the more relationships are important - touch
The wealthier and healthier the nation, the higher the suicide rate
The search for experience
Problem of Motivation Cost of staff turnover
Surviving Rapid Change
Building a Better World
Beliefs
Spirituality
Islam
Christianity
Highest Values of All (in addition to professionalism)
Ethical - challenges
Life in the Third Millennium
Future Trends...
Turning the cube...
The greatest challenge to those involved in regulations will be to change fast enough to keep pace with new technology and new values Either we take hold of the future or the future will take hold of us
Future Trends...
Future Trends...
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Home Page: http://www.globalchange.com/search.htm
Other information:
by Dr Patrick Dixon, Chairman Global Change Ltd for RAPS (Regulatory
Affairs Professional Society). Future of scientific research.
Patents
and intellectual
capital, copyright. Research methods, virtual teams and collaboration
in multi-centre studies. Pharmaceutical research, new technologies,
new materials and new processes. Impact on industry, research
priorities, research budgets and exploiting the commercial
potential
of major research discoveries and inventions. Protecting research
investment. Making a case for research budgets. Linking research
to products and markets. Managing research programmes effectively.
Publishing research papers and maintaining commercial secrecy
and confidentiality. Industrial espionage, spying, bugging
and
leakage of commercial knowledge. Impact of corporate ethics
on research policy and funding. Partnerships between corporate
investors and accademic institutions, research institutes
and
research foundations as well as universities, colleges and
medical schools. Single issue activism and impact of activist
groups
on research methodology such as use of animals in experiments,
vivisection and other highly controversial areas.
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